New England Patriots Report

Looking back at running game forecast

January, 4, 2013

Jan 4

4:51

PM ET

By ESPNBoston.com

Before the season began, we asked our three Patriots experts project the team’s running game. Specifically, we instructed them to peg exact numbers to each running back.

We gave them a baseline projection of 440 carries for 1,800 yards (4 yards per carry) and 18 touchdowns. In reality, the Patriots rushed a lot more (523 times) for more yards (2,184) and a heckuva lot more touchdowns (a league-leading 25) than our prediction. About the only thing we got right was the yards per carry (4.17).

Reader “311Bosox311” accurately forecasted Stevan Ridley's breakout season, predicting him to run for 1,300 yards and 13 touchdowns, numbers he came close to matching.

Check out how our experts fared in their predictions. The picks in bold were the closest to the actual numbers:

Revisiting Patriots running game predictions

	Stevan Ridley	Shane Vereen	Danny Woodhead	Brandon Bolden
Actual statistics	290 carries 1,263 yards 12 TDs	62 carries 251 yards 3 TDs	76 carries 301 yards 4 TDs	56 carries 274 yards 2 TDs
Mike Reiss' prediction	220 carries 1,000 yards 10 TDs	100 carries 400 yards 3 TDs	70 carries 300 yards 3 TDs	50 carries 100 yards 2 TDs
Mike Rodak's prediction	219 carries 876 yards 13 TDs	112 carries 462 yards 4 TDs	67 carries 310 yards 0 TD	42 carries 152 yards 1 TD
Field Yates' prediction	220 carries 870 yards 11 TDs	90 carries 330 yards 3 TDs	95 carries 480 yards 3 TDs	35 carries 120 yards 1 TD
> Using a baseline prediction of 440 carries for 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns for all Pats running backs

Tags:

New England Patriots, Predictions

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ABOUT THIS BLOG

Mike Reiss

Mike Reiss first started covering the Patriots in 1997 with the team's official newspaper, Patriots Football Weekly, before moving on to the MetroWest Daily News in his hometown of Framingham. From 2005 to 2009, he covered the Patriots for The Boston Globe, while also writing on the NFL. He started his popular Patriots blog in 2004. Send any questions or comments for Mike to his mailbag. Follow him on Twitter (@MikeReiss).

Mike Rodak

Mike Rodak began covering the Patriots for ESPNBoston.com in July 2010. A native of Grafton, Mass., Mike attended Providence College. Follow him on Twitter (@mikerodak)

Field Yates

Field Yates begins his contributions to ESPNBoston.com in 2012 after having written for a number of football-related sites around the web. Field began his professional career after college with the Kansas City Chiefs, working in both the scouting and coaching departments of the franchise before redirecting his focus to a career in media. He also interned for four summers in the coaching and scouting departments with the Patriots. Follow him on Twitter (@FieldYates).