W2W4: Bears at 49ers

November, 17, 2012
11/17/12
6:51
PM CT
By Michael C. Wright | ESPNChicago.com

CHICAGO BEARS (7-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (6-2-1)

7:30 p.m Monday at Candlestick Park on ESPN

Quarterback
Advantage
Alex Smith has completed 57.4 percent of his passes of 10 yards or more down the field, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That ranks as fourth in the NFL while backup Colin Kaepernick has completed 7 of 10 from such distances. Jason Campbell is 31-39 as a starter, but has won 10 of his last 15 starts since 2010. Campbell’s average pass travels 6.6 yards downfield, according to ESPN Stats & Info. Of the 30 quarterbacks to attempt at least 1,000 passes since 2008, Campbell has the shortest average throw distance.
Running Backs
Advantage
The 49ers rank first in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and Frank Gore is the primary reason. Since 2005, Gore ranks fourth in rushing behind Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and Tennessee’s Chris Johnson. Gore has rushed for 100 yards or more in 32 games. Matt Forte hasn’t received many opportunities to make a mark because he averages 13.6 carries per game. He’s put together two 100-yard rushing performances this season, but the team hasn’t stuck to its stated run-first philosophy. Backup Michael Bush averages 3.7 yards per carry.
Wide Receivers
Advantage
Brandon Marshall will be the most dangerous receiver on the field in this game with him averaging 13.5 yards per reception. But the Bears need more production from Earl Bennett and Devin Hester as well. Alshon Jeffery’s return this week might take some of the pressure off Marshall and Campbell. Michael Crabtree leads San Francisco’s receiving corps. Although he lacks breakaway speed, Crabtree possesses good hands. Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, who has caught 18 touchdowns in 19 appearances on Monday Night Football, provide strong secondary options in the passing game.
Offensive Line
Advantage
The Bears put together their first game in which they didn’t give up a sack against one of the league’s better defensive fronts in their last outing, but face a difficult test against the 49ers. Offensive coordinator Mike Tice will try to help out the tackles on San Francisco’s pass rushers, but when they’re in one-on-one situations they need to hold their own. Led by OT Joe Staley, the 49ers field one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. The 49ers lead the league in rushing yards per game (170.2), and rushing average (5.6) and they’ve gained 83 first downs via the ground game. Interestingly, the Bears and 49ers rank No. 1 and No. 2 in sacks allowed per pass play on first downs.
Defensive Line
Advantage
The Bears are tied for sixth in sacks (26) with 24 of those sacks coming from the defensive line, and coincidentally the club has picked off 15 passes while rushing four or fewer this season, while allowing just five TDs, according to ESPN Stats & Information. DE Julius Peppers has posted a sack in three of his last four games for 6 on the season. San Francisco sends four pass rushers or fewer 78.8 percent of the time. The reason for that is the 49ers generate plenty of pressure with the defensive line, led by DT Justin Smith and OLB Aldon Smith (9.5 sacks).
Linebackers
Advantage
Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith have contributed a combined 293 tackles, 15.5 sacks, and 86 quarterback pressures. Bowman, Willis and Smith appear to be putting together Pro Bowl seasons in leading a defense that allows points on just 25.8 percent of opponents’ offensive possessions. Brian Urlacher produced one of his strongest performances of the season against the Texans, but missed a few tackles. After two consecutive games with double-digit tackles, Lance Briggs has posted six tackles in each of his last two outings. Nick Roach, meanwhile, has contributed more than three tackles in a game just twice this season.
Secondary
Advantage
Charles Tillman has returned both his interceptions for touchdowns this season, in addition to forcing seven fumbles. Tim Jennings leads the NFL in interceptions (8), but has been responsible for 10 turnovers overall. With Chris Conte and Major Wright starting at safety, the Bears limit opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 63.7 with the duo combining for 8 INTs over the last two seasons. San Francisco features a pair of strikers at safety in Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. Cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown haven’t picked off any passes but have combined for 12 pass breakups.
Special Teams
Advantage
Ted Ginn Jr. is probably just as dangerous in the return game as Devin Hester, and Kyle Williams has also proven to be a dynamic return man for the 49ers. Bears punter Adam Podlesh is in the midst of a slump, and the team has considered bringing in other options at the position. Kicker Robbie Gould has missed a field goal in three of his last four games, but he’s hit on 10 consecutive field goals from distances of 50 yards or more while 49ers K David Akers is 1 of 3 from such distances this season.
Coaching
Advantage
The Bears are 9-2 on Monday Night Football under Lovie Smith, and have won seven of their last eight on the big stage. Jim Harbaugh, meanwhile, is coming off a 13-3 record in his first season as an NFL head coach. Harbaugh is one of nine current head coaches with NFL playing experience and of the coaches, he has the best winning percentage at .780. Harbaugh has proven to be adept at halftime adjustments as the 49ers have scored 34 points on their opening possession of the second half this season.
Overall
Advantage
What’s concerning about the Bears is the fact they’ve allowed 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games, and face a 49ers squad that averages 170.2 yards per game on the ground. Chicago has also been plagued by slow starts this season, which is another concern for the club on the road. The Bears are 11-1 over the past two years when they lead after the first quarter, but 1-4 over the same span when they trail after the first quarter and 1-7 when they're behind at the half. So a fast start is paramount for the Bears in this game. While it wouldn't be a surprise to see Jason Campbell move the offense better than Jay Cutler, a strong outing from the backup quarterback likely won't be enough.
PREDICTION: 49ers 17, Bears 13

Michael C. Wright | email

Chicago Bears beat reporter
Wright joined ESPNChicago in April 2010 after spending the previous four seasons covering the Jaguars. He also covered the Redskins for two seasons. A native Texan, Wright was a four-year football letterman at West Texas A&M University.
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Michael Wright, W2W4, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers

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Michael C. Wright

Wright joined ESPNChicago in April 2010 after spending the previous four seasons covering the Jaguars. He also covered the Redskins for two seasons. A native Texan, Wright was a four-year football letterman at West Texas A&M University.

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