W2W4: Bears at Lions

December, 29, 2012
12/29/12
12:00
PM CT
By Michael C. Wright | ESPNChicago.com

CHICAGO BEARS (9-6) at DETROIT LIONS (4-11)

Noon Sunday at Ford Field on Fox

Quarterback
Advantage
Matthew Stafford is on the verge of becoming just the second quarterback in NFL history to finish a regular season with 5,000 yards or more passing in back-to-back years. Stafford is coming off a performance against Atlanta in which he passed for 443 yards with one interception and needs 305 in the finale to reach the 5,000 mark. Jay Cutler tossed a TD pass last week, and didn’t throw an interception for the first time in three games, but he hasn’t finished a game with a passer rating better than 76.8 in nearly a month. While sacks seem to be coming down for Cutler, his numbers aren’t going up.
Running backs
Advantage
Matt Forte suffered an ankle injury against the Arizona Cardinals that forced him to leave the game, and has been hampered by the same injury all season. Still, Forte averaged 7.3 yards per carry before exiting. Forte will play against the Lions, and the injury isn’t expected to significantly inhibit his mobility. The Lions’ Mikel Leshoure missed his rookie season and the first two games of 2012, but has put together a respectable campaign (741 yards, 9 TDs) for his first NFL season. Second-year man Joique Bell has been more productive than Leshoure with fewer opportunities.
Wide receivers
Advantage
Two big, physical gamebreaking receivers in Detroit’s Calvin Johnson -- who needs 108 yards to reach 2,000 -- and Chicago’s Brandon Marshall make this a compelling matchup. The last time these teams met, Johnson caught just three passes and proved to be a non-factor. But Titus Young picked up the slack to catch six balls for 81 yards. Marshall led the Bears with six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. So look for Johnson and Marshall to be the No. 1 priority for both defenses. Ultimately, the supporting casts at this position could decide the outcome. Detroit’s cast has been more productive thanks to tight end Brandon Pettigrew.
Offensive line
Advantage
The Bears allowed only one sack last week for the first time since Nov. 25, as Gabe Carimi returned to the starting lineup at right tackle and put together a solid effort. Undrafted rookie James Brown brings an element of physicality and athleticism to the up-and-down group, which finally produced a solid outing in the run blocking department. Detroit’s offensive line, however, has more continuity because the group has been together for a combined 563 starts in the regular season, which ranks as the most in the NFL.
Defensive line
Advantage
When Detroit’s defensive line comes to play, it can be among the most disruptive in the league with DTs Ndamukong Suh and Sammie Hill filling in for Nick Fairley, who is on the injured reserve. Hill is out with a toe injury and is likely to be replaced by Andre Fluellen on Sunday. Kyle Vanden Bosh gives the Lions a veteran presence, but Cliff Avril has proven to be the playmaker among the bunch. Given the back-and-forth between Bears DT Henry Melton and Detroit OL Dominic Raiola, expect some nastiness inside in this game. Bears DE Julius Peppers is coming off one of his better games and an NFC Player of the Week nod.
Linebackers
Advantage
It’s almost a rarity now to see a pair of teams that play 4-3 defenses facing one another, but that’s what we’ve got with this matchup. Stephen Tulloch leads the Lions with 105 tackles, followed by Justin Durant (97) and DeAndre Levy (72). Detroit’s linebackers have also combined for nine sacks on the season. Chicago’s group suffered a short-lived bout of inconsistency because of lineup changes that came as a result of a hamstring injury to Brian Urlacher. But the current starting three of Lance Briggs, Nick Roach and Geno Hayes has played well. Urlacher returns this game, so the group should play even better.
Secondary
Advantage
With Chris Conte expected to miss the game because of a hamstring injury, his replacement Anthony Walters could quickly become a target for the league’s top-ranked passing offense. Charles Tillman should be able to hold his own against Johnson, and Tim Jennings will shut down the other side of the field with Major Wright making plays on the back end. Detroit’s secondary, led by safety Louis Delmas and Chris Houston has been banged up. Houston has been limited at practice with a hamstring injury. Delmas has missed practice time with a knee, and Don Carey has also been slowed by knee issues.
Special teams
Advantage
Devin Hester will be the best return man on the field, but indecision in last week’s game against the Arizona Cardinals led to the Bears muffing a punt. Special-teams coordinator Dave Toub said earlier in the week that Hester needs to improve in that area. With the Bears in such a critical game, maybe Hester finally delivers. The competition between kickers should be fairly even. Although Olindo Mare is new to the Bears, Lions K Jason Hanson is 10 of 18 on field goal attempts from 40 yards out or more.
Coaching
Advantage
Although the Lions feature one of the league’s most prolific offenses, they’ve lost seven in a row and the skid can probably traced back to the head coach. Detroit has shown a penchant for playing undisciplined under Jim Schwartz, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Lions lose their composure in this game. Lovie Smith, meanwhile, typically keeps the Bears pretty consistent in terms of discipline. But the slides this team has experienced late in the season in recent years are undeniable. The Bears possess the better coaching staff in this matchup. Smith is 6-1 overall against Schwartz.
Overall
Advantage
Chicago can’t let Detroit’s front four dominate this game or it could become a turnover fest with Cutler fumbling and throwing interceptions. The best way to slow down the Lions’ defensive front, obviously, is to establish the rushing attack with Forte, who has shown signs he’s poised for a big outing, judging from the fact he’s averaged 6.5 and 7.3 yards per carry in two of his last three games. Defensively, the Bears need to snuff out Detroit’s run right away and make the pass-happy Lions force the ball to Johnson. That’s probably what will transpire this game, and it wouldn’t be a shocker to see the Bears score a defensive touchdown in this one.
PREDICTION: Bears 20, Lions 17

Michael C. Wright | email

Chicago Bears beat reporter
Wright joined ESPNChicago in April 2010 after spending the previous four seasons covering the Jaguars. He also covered the Redskins for two seasons. A native Texan, Wright was a four-year football letterman at West Texas A&M University.
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Michael Wright, Chicago Bears, 2012 Regular Season, 2012 W2W4, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions

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Michael Wright
Michael C. Wright

Wright joined ESPNChicago in April 2010 after spending the previous four seasons covering the Jaguars. He also covered the Redskins for two seasons. A native Texan, Wright was a four-year football letterman at West Texas A&M University.

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