Stats in the Paint: weekend outlook

January, 18, 2013
1/18/13
9:37
PM ET
Let’s get you warmed up for the season-opening "College GameDay" road show (live Saturday from Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN) by taking a look at some notes and nuggets from our college hoops advanced-stats research team (a group we call the “Stats in the Paint” team).

Top games

(6) Syracuse Orange at (1) Louisville Cardinals, 4 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Syracuse stat to watch: The Orange average 40.8 points per game in the paint, the most for any team in a Big Six conference.

Syracuse has scored at least 40 points in the paint in 11 games, two more than any other major-conference team.

Louisville stats to watch: The Cardinals average 25.2 points per game off turnovers, the most for any Big Six conference team.

The Cardinals scored a season-low 14 points off turnovers against Duke on Nov. 24 in their lone loss of the season. For the season, they score 33 percent of their points off turnovers, the most for any major-conference school.

Player to watch: Peyton Siva had 12 points and 11 turnovers in Louisville’s two losses to Syracuse last season. In five career games against Syracuse, Siva has never scored more than eight points. But he could make up for that on the defensive end. As an on-ball defender, Siva is holding opponents to 28 percent shooting, with 17 turnovers forced.

Common bond: Syracuse is allowing 81.7 points per 100 possessions. Louisville is allowing 81.8.

Stat of the day: A No. 1 team hasn’t lost on its home court in four years. The last 22 No. 1-ranked teams to lose have done so on the road or at a neutral site.

(8) Gonzaga Bulldogs at (13) Butler Bulldogs, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Gonzaga stat to watch: Gonzaga is shooting 51.7 percent in the half court this season, the second-highest percentage in the nation. Creighton leads the nation at 51.9 percent and is the only other team shooting at least 50 percent in the half court.

Butler stat to watch: Butler grabs 39 percent of its missed shots this season, the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Atlantic 10 and 19th-best in the nation.

Butler grabbed 17 offensive rebounds and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 59 percent in its last game, against Richmond, its highest offensive-rebounding percentage in the past three seasons.

Common bond: Gonzaga and Butler are a combined 12-2 this season against teams from Big Six conferences. As the chart on the right shows, they have very similar stats.

(17) Missouri Tigers at (10) Florida Gators, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Stat to watch: Florida has allowed 19.6 points per game in the paint this season, the fewest among schools from the Big Six conferences. Missouri is averaging 37.1 points per game in the paint, third-most in the SEC.

Player to watch: Missouri's Alex Oriakhi has 52 points off putbacks this season, second-most in the SEC.

(11) Ohio State Buckeyes at (18) Michigan State Spartans, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Stat to watch: This will be a test of strength against strength. Michigan State averages 35.8 points per game in the paint, the second-most in the Big Ten. Ohio State allows 21.9 paint points per game, fewest in the Big Ten and eighth-fewest among Big Six teams.

(21) Oregon Ducks at (24) UCLA Bruins, 4 p.m. ET

Stat to watch: Oregon scores 26 percent of its points off of turnovers this season, the highest percentage in the Pac-12. The Ducks average a Pac-12-best 19.8 points per game off turnovers.

The Bruins, however, turn the ball over on 16 percent of their possessions, the lowest percentage in the Pac-12.

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