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Tournament Challenge update

3/20/2013

With about 24 hours before brackets lock in Tournament Challenge, there have been 5.3 million brackets entered in the game (6.45 million last year and 5.9 million in 2011).

The most popular picks to win it all have pretty much stayed the same, with just minor movements in percentages.

  • Louisville: 21.7 percent

  • Indiana: 17.1 percent

  • Miami: 11.1 percent

  • Kansas: 8.5 percent

  • Duke: 8.1 percent

  • Ohio State: 6.2 percent

  • Gonzaga: 5.6 percent

  • Georgetown: 3.5 percent

  • Michigan State: 2.9 percent

  • Florida: 2.9 percent

  • Michigan: 2.8 percent

  • Syracuse: 1.6 percent

  • (No one else over 1 percent)

New Mexico State is the least popular pick to win it all, followed by Northwestern State and Iona.

Ohio State is still the only non-No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four, according to our users.

Predicted to reach Final Four:

Midwest Region

(1) Louisville: 52.0 percent

(2) Duke: 23.8 percent

(3) Michigan State: 15.0 percent

(4) Saint Louis: 3.7 percent

West Region

(2) Ohio State: 43.5 percent

(1) Gonzaga: 27.1 percent

(5) Wisconsin: 9.3 percent

(3) New Mexico: 9.2 percent

South

(1) Kansas: 34.1 percent

(2) Georgetown: 25.0 percent

(3) Florida: 16.7 percent

(4) Michigan: 14.6 percent

(5) VCU: 3.6 percent

East

(1) Indiana: 44.3 percent

(2) Miami: 36.9 percent

(4) Syracuse: 8.4 percent

(3) Marquette: 3.8 percent

Obama's bracket versus the field

-- President Obama's Final Four (Louisville, Indiana, Ohio State, Florida) appears on 2.5 percent of brackets.

  • Picking all No. 1 seeds into the Final Four: 3.9 percent of brackets

  • Most popular Final Four combination (Louisville, Indiana, Ohio State, Kansas): 4.3 percent

-- His Louisville-Indiana matchup in the national championship game was picked on 13.8 percent of brackets.

Most popular championship game picks:

Louisville-Indiana: 13.8 percent

Louisville-Miami: 10.6 percent

Duke-Indiana: 6.1 percent

Louisville-Kansas: 5.4 percent

Ohio State-Indiana: 3.8 percent

Duke-Miami: 3.5 percent

Obama's Round of 64 upset picks, compared to all brackets

-- 13-seed LaSalle over 4-seed Kansas State: 5.1 percent (LaSalle-Boise State is tonight, but you can't pick that matchup in the game)

-- 11-seed Belmont over 6-seed Arizona: 24.1 percent

-- 11-seed Minnesota over 6-seed UCLA: 47.9 percent (the closest matchup on the board overall)

-- 10-seed Cincinnati over 7-seed Creighton: 45.2 percent

-- 10-seed Oklahoma over 7-seed San Diego State: 42.8 percent

"Closest" potential upset picks by seed

9 over 8: Missouri (65.3 percent) over Colorado State

10 over 7: Cincinnati (45.2 percent) over Creighton

11 over 6: Minnesota (47.9 percent) over UCLA

12 over 5: Oregon (41.6 percent) over Oklahoma State

13 over 4: New Mexico State (11.4 percent) over Saint Louis

14 over 3: Davidson (13.8 percent) over Marquette

15 over 2: Florida Gulf Coast (2.3 percent) over Georgetown

16 over 1: Southern (1.5 percent) over Gonzaga

St. Mary's (the winner of Tuesday night's First Four game over Middle Tennessee) is now up to 14.2 percent to win its Round of 64 game. It was 12.6 percent on Tuesday. Currently, the Boise State-LaSalle winner is picked on 5.1 percent of brackets to win in the Round of 64. We'll see how much it changes after there's some clarity over who fills that spot.