video
As you might have noticed, ESPN and ESPN.com will begin counting down the top 20 coaches in NFL history later this week. Trey Wingo provides the basic parameters in the video, and from an NFC North perspective, this list is going to boil down to where a pair of historic figures show up: The Green Bay Packers' Vince Lombardi and the Chicago Bears' George Halas.

Two ballots have already been revealed. ESPN's Rick Reilly put Lombardi at No. 1 and Halas at No. 5. But in an Insider post , former NFL coach Herm Edwards puts Halas at No. 1 and Lombardi at No. 2.

Edwards noted that Halas coaches for 40 seasons and added: "All he did was win six NFL titles and compile a record of 324-151-31 (.682), while sustaining a competitive team over his entire coaching career. Perhaps his most impressive statistic is that his teams were under .500 in only six of his 40 seasons."

I'll bring your attention to any ranking that involves an NFC North-related coach over the next few weeks.
Mike McCarthy, Jim Schwartz, Leslie FrazierGetty ImagesJim Schwartz, center, and Leslie Frazier, right, weren't nearly as frisky as Mike McCarthy was on fourth-down plays in 2012.
When the Detroit Lions hired Jim Schwartz as their coach in 2009, hope emerged from the sports analytics industry. Had it gained a patron saint? Schwartz, after all, had acknowledged his interest in the subject during his time as the Tennessee Titans' defensive coordinator, and some girded for the kind of nontraditional, out-of-the-box thinking it might lead to.

There was an obvious test case. Ever since David Romer's groundbreaking 2006 paper, advanced analysts have encouraged NFL coaches to be more aggressive on fourth down. Research showed that the cost of failing was not as severe as conventional wisdom might suggest, especially when compared to the benefits and likelihood of success.

If anything, however, Schwartz has fallen on the conservative side of his already-cautious NFL brethren, providing us an NFC North illustration of the larger trend. Despite objective research and data, coaches still have relatively little stomach for eschewing field goals and punts in favor of the possibility for a touchdown or continuing a drive.

Our friends at Football Outsiders recently published a ranking of the Aggressiveness Index for every 2012 coach, measuring how often he went for it on fourth down relative to the league average. The study includes fakes but eliminates obvious catch-up situations as well as plays in the final 10 seconds of a half.

As you can see in the chart below, the NFC North's most aggressive coach last season was the Green Bay Packers' Mike McCarthy, who went for it 11 times in 108 qualifying opportunities. Close observers of the Packers' season, of course, would recognize that at least a few of those occasions were partially related to place-kicker Mason Crosby's midseason slump.

Minnesota Vikings coach Leslie Frazier went for it four times in 104 opportunities, while Schwartz did so on only two of 98, the second-lowest total in the NFL.

Why am I circling back on this topic now? As NFC West colleague Mike Sando and I discussed during an Inside Slant podcast last November, the NFL arrival of former Oregon coach Chip Kelly could shake up current thinking on fourth downs in the way that Schwartz's mere interest in the general topic of advanced analysis did not.

Kelly's aggressiveness on fourth down at Oregon wasn't necessarily an outlier in the college game but would surely stand out in his new role with the Philadelphia Eagles. (As the Philadelphia Daily News noted, Oregon converted 20 of 31 fourth-down attempts last season, double what most NFL teams tried.)

Kelly has downplayed his potential to carry over those trends to the NFL, telling the Daily News that there is a "fallacy and reality" to what he did. His place-kicker's leg strength played a role in decisions, Kelly said, and rarely did he go for it on his side of the field -- a riskier proposition to be sure.

Regardless, here's hoping that Kelly provides a spark that will spread in a copycat league. Fourth downs are the kind of dramatic and intensely strategic plays that can add another layer of intrigue to a game and spur an entire week of conversation and debate.

Consider one of the simplest examples from the original paper Romer wrote as an economics professor at Cal-Berkley.

It's fourth down and goal at the 2-yard line early in a game, a scenario that provides a near-automatic field goal. According to Romer's research, going for it in that situation historically led to a touchdown 43 percent of the time.

Most coaches look at those odds and choose the 100 percent chance of three points rather than about a 50-50 chance of seven. The analyst would say the expected payoff is about the same.

Why? If you fall short of the touchdown, the opponent takes over inside the 3-yard line. Historically, you're still in pretty good position to get the ball back close to scoring position.

My guess is it will take a long time to drag even the most free-thinking coaches into a more aggressive fourth-down approach. The bottom line is that it's scary to give up a near-certain chance for points at a given moment. But that doesn't mean we can't hope. This season, I'll do my best to track our coaches' decisions in such situations and compare them to the risks presented by historical research. We'll see where it goes.

NFC North chat alert

May, 21, 2013
May 21
10:00
AM ET
I'm willing to chat on May 21 if you are. I'm sure we'll find plenty to talk about as organized team activities continue around the NFC North. See you over at SportsNation at 2 p.m. ET.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Why is the NFL considering a reorganization of its offseason schedule, as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter? Naturally, to avoid the kind of quiet period that leaves players, teams and media members fighting over whether someone has broken fingers or simply injured ones.

That about sums up the silly fracas that erupted Monday after Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson seemed to confirm that he played much of last season with broken fingers on his left hand. (He replied, "I had a couple injuries to them, yeah," according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.) The Lions' website initially reported his comments as confirmation but later updated its story to say: "While Johnson did admit to suffering finger injuries, he did not specifically state that he did suffer a break."

The basic point we made Monday should stand: Johnson set an NFL record for receiving yards in a season with significant injuries to one of the most important body parts on a wide receiver. Whether they were broken, mangled, bruised, cut or any injured in any other way, the revelation adds a layer to his historic season.

Why the fuss over the exact diagnosis? Time. Time. Too much time.

(That and perhaps concern about an injury report violation. Johnson was never listed with a broken finger last season, and this isn't the first time Johnson has seemed to describe an injury that the Lions never listed him with.)

Continuing around the NFC North:
Jared AllenEAG Sports ManagementJared Allen took his turn at the slip-and-slide contest during his annual charity golf tournament.
So, what did you do this weekend?

Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen hosted "Night-Ops IV," his fourth annual charity golf tournament to benefit his Homes for Wounded Warriors program. The event included nine holes of night-time golf and a 280-foot slip-and-slide competition.

If you thought Allen would be kept off said slip-and-slide a few months after offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum, well, you don't know Jared Allen.
As ESPN.com's Ashley Fox acknowledges, Lambeau Field as the host for Super Bowl L "will never happen."

You know why?

The high-rolling Super Bowl crowd couldn't handle it.

It's one thing to make an exception to the dome/warm weather routine for New York City, the largest city in the country and the site of the $1.2 billion MetLife Stadium. It's quite another to bring the league's singular event to Green Bay.

In New York, organizers are worried about sub-freezing temperatures at kickoff. The city's average high in January is 38 degrees and its average low is 27 degrees. In Green Bay, where the average low at that time of year is a crisp 9 degrees, they would be concerned about sub-arctic temperatures.

As you might know, the people who attend Super Bowls are a mix of corporate sponsors, celebrities, people to whom favors are owed, NFL season ticket holders and a small group of each participating team's fans and family. That crew can probably make it through a 30-degree game in New York. But how many of them -- how many of us, really -- would want to try sitting through a single-digit game at Lambeau?

(Think Brett Favre at the 2007 NFC Championship Game.)

Packers season ticket holders are quite literally a special breed. They know how to deal with frigid temperatures. It's in their blood. Outsiders? Good luck and pack an extra blaze-orange.

A Super Bowl at Lambeau Field is like a lot of things: It sounds good in theory but would be miserable in practice for the NFL's highest-paying customers.
In February, we learned that Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson played at least the final four games of the regular season with a sports hernia that ultimately required offseason surgery. Peterson, of course, finished the season with the second most rushing yards in a season (2,097) in NFL history.

Johnson
Now it's time to recognize another feat that was no less impressive.

Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson acknowledged Monday to reporters that he played most of last season with broken fingers on his left hand. Johnson, you might recall, set an NFL record with 1,964 receiving yards in 2012.

According to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, Johnson said he has been spending the offseason "pretty much trying to get them back straight, trying to straighten them things out."

Johnson said he has not had surgery and credited at least part of his 2012 success on apparently not realizing the fingers were broken.

"I had a couple of injuries but nothing that prohibited me from doing what I needed to do," Johnson said. "The thing with a lot of football players, you have injuries, but unless you know about it you just think it's something that hurts and you keep on playing."

Much like a sports hernia should have slowed down Peterson's running ability, it's difficult to imagine how Johnson was so effective with injuries to a body part so vital to his position.

I guess we should note that Johnson did drop eight passes last season, tied for the ninth most in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But when viewed to scale, that figure is a blip. Those eight drops came amid a league-high 200 targets, giving Johnson a drop rate of 4.0 percent. The more passes you are thrown, of course, the better your chances are for having a higher drop total. Last season, however, 81 NFL players dropped passes at a higher rate per target.

Generally speaking, you can assume that few NFL players are 100 percent by the end of a season. Even those who played in 16 games deal with some level of injury along the way. But in Johnson's case, as with Peterson, the ailments did nothing to stop a record-setting season.
Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote a heck of a profile on Green Bay Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop. You should by all means check out Dunne's deep dive into Bishop's life story and how it has impacted his recovery from a torn hamstring muscle.

From a football perspective, what stood out to me is that the recovery is still ongoing a full nine months after the injury. When the Packers begin organized team activities (OTAs) this week, Bishop isn't expected to participate. That's at least a mildly concerning turn of events and adds further context to why the Packers signed backup Brad Jones to a lucrative new contract. They also restructured veteran A.J. Hawk's contract to a deal that guarantees he will be with the team in 2013 and most likely beyond.

Bishop said that "my injury side is perfect" and "100 percent." But he added: "I have little nicks and knacks here just from being out and trying to get back in. So we'll see how I feel, but I don't really want to rush it. There's no point in rushing it right now."

Bishop pledged to be ready to practice by training camp, which will open more than 11 months after he originally suffered the injury. We have no reason to doubt his plans, and it makes sense for a veteran player with experience in the current scheme to take it slow during offseason practices. But if nothing else, Bishop's extended recovery time reinforces how serious the original injury was.
In 2003, the NFL scheduled the Minnesota Vikings as the Green Bay Packers' first opponent in the renovated Lambeau Field. So naturally, the Vikings are expecting the league to return the favor 13 years later.

Nothing will be official for a while, but the Vikings' top stadium executive suggested to multiple media outlets over the weekend that the Packers likely will be the first regular-season opponent in the Vikings' new stadium, scheduled to open in time for the 2016 season.

Responding to a question about jabs from Packers fans on the stadium's design, Vikings vice president Lester Bagley told KARE-Ch. 11 that "we can't wait" to play the Packers there.

"The way the league is structured … our very first regular-season game will likely be against the Green Bay Packers," Bagley said. "So it will be good to see Adrian Peterson break loose and score the first touchdown in the new stadium and run over Clay Matthews on his way to the end zone. We'll see. Hopefully we'll have the last word when we get to opening day in [September] 2016."

(The answer starts around the 14:30 mark.)

The Vikings defeated the Packers 30-25 in that 2003 game, intercepting quarterback Brett Favre four times. Of course, the Packers gained the final word that season by clinching the NFC North in Week 17.

There are multiple variables that go into scheduling out a season, but the Packers will have to play at the new stadium at some point during the 2016 season. So the only real obstacles to the Week 1 matchup is if the NFL opts against it or a television network wants it for later in the season.
We're Black and Blue All Over:

We're down to five unsigned draft choices here in the NFC North after the Chicago Bears wrapped up contracts for their 2013 class over the weekend. First-round draft pick Kyle Long agreed to terms on a four-year deal, with a team option for a fifth, a move that gets 30 of this division's 35 draft picks under contract.

Those unsigned include four first-round picks and one second-rounder. They include the Minnesota Vikings' Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes and Cordarrelle Patterson; and the Green Bay Packers' Datone Jones and Eddie Lacy.

Unsigned draft choices are free to participate in offseason programs and in essence have until the start of training camp before their contracts become an issue.

Continuing around the NFC North:
  • Bears fans should realize their team is in the same boat with backup quarterback Josh McCown as most of the NFL, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune. Pompei: "As quarterback play has become more important, the notion of a backup superhero has become increasingly quaint. There are more desirable ones than McCown, certainly. But not many."
  • Former Bears coach Mike Ditka checks in with the Chicago Sun-Times on Jay Cutler's football IQ and other issues.
  • Detroit Lions linebacker Stephen Tulloch said that former Lions receiver Titus Young confided in him about mental illness. Tulloch would not specify Young's issues, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
  • The Lions' upcoming organized team activities should begin to answer the team's questions, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
  • Free-agent defensive back Charles Woodson isn't opposed to playing for the Lions, notes Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com. The question is to what extent the Lions would have interest.
  • Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop is pledging to be "110 percent" by the time training camp begins, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Bishop is still recovering from a torn hamstring muscle suffered last summer.
  • Packers Hall of Fame quarterback Bart Starr, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "The greatest mistake I made in my life was to coach. It's a great lesson that could apply to any of us. Because I didn't plan to, I hadn't prepared to. And I didn't have the guts to say to the Green Bay Packers, 'Thank you, but no thank you. I'm not going to do it.' I wasn't prepared, and it showed over the first few years. I felt very, very badly about that."
  • Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette on rookie Packers running backs Lacy and Johnathan Franklin: "It’s entirely possible both will be used extensively this season and complement each other while giving Aaron Rodgers and his receivers some room to breathe."
  • Vikings cornerback Chris Cook says he is ready to handle opponents' top receivers. Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com has more.
  • Vikings linebacker Erin Henderson was part of a journalism boot camp earlier this month, writes Mark Craig of the Star Tribune.
  • Neighbors of the new Vikings stadium have mixed reviews, writes Richard Meryhew of the Star Tribune.
Football Outsiders, a statistics-based analysis service, has been producing division-by-division Insider files on remaining team needs. You'll need a subscription to read the entire NFC North post Insider, but below I've taken a few excerpts and written a few things about them.

Chicago Bears
Football Outsiders' issue: Receiver
Football Outsiders comment: "When we pointed to wide receiver as a major flaw for the current Bears early in the offseason, it was to the consternation of a lot of Bears fans who saw the offensive line as the larger issue. The problem is that Jay Cutler is a see-it, throw-it passer. He's still a solid quarterback, but he's never thrown receivers open on a consistent basis. That amplifies the Bears' receiving problems, and while scheming can create the occasional big play for Devin Hester, Eric Weems, or Earl Bennett, they can't defeat man coverage often enough to benefit Cutler."
Seifert comment: I'm not on board with describing Cutler as a "see-it, throw-it" passer. If anything, his arm strength and velocity give him too much confidence when it comes to throwing receivers open. (The phrase refers to putting the ball in a place that an otherwise covered receiver can catch it). I wouldn't argue that Bears' need for additional depth behind Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Bennett, but it's not because of any passing limitation on Cutler's part. There's just not much else behind them, especially as long as Hester works solely with special teams.

Detroit Lions
Football Outsiders' issue: Offensive line
Football Outsiders comment: "The strength of this line in recent seasons has been pass blocking, as Detroit's offense has finished in the top 10 in adjusted sack rate for the past three seasons, but that is likely to take a hit from this offseason's turnover."
Seifert comment: On the other hand, the Lions' new offensive line might be a better run-blocking group. That aspect has taken a back seat in recent years. I do think, however, that it's worth being concerned about putting your franchise quarterback behind a line with at least three first-time starters.

Green Bay Packers
Football Outsiders' issue: Offensive line
Football Outsiders comment: "[M]uch like the Lions, the Packers are putting their faith in their quarterback to evade the pass rush this season. Unlike the Lions, the Packers don't have a lot of personnel turnover in this unit, but, also unlike the Lions, they finished second-to-last in adjusted sack rate last season."
Seifert comment: There would be those who suggest that flipping the left and right sides of your line is football version of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But every quarterback needs more help from their blind-side pass blockers. If you're going to have a strength and a weakness, it makes sense to shore up the left side first.

Minnesota Vikings
Football Outsiders' issue: Middle linebacker
Football Outsiders comment: "Erin Henderson and Chad Greenway can take care of things in Leslie Frazier's nickel fronts, but the base 4-3 is lacking a thumper after Jasper Brinkley's departure in free agency. (Of course, given Brinkley's broken-tackle rate, they probably were lacking one even if he had come back)."
Seifert comment: The Vikings clearly fell short in their attempts to find a long-term solution at this position during the offseason. They will give Henderson a chance to grow into it during organized team activities, but he was not their first choice. This position could well be atop their list of 2014 needs as well.
Reggie Bush's appearance Friday morning on the NFL Network reinforced what should be a fun 2013 trend in at least two sectors of the NFC North: Running backs catching passes. Lots of them.

How many? Well, we can say this: We have two connections to this chart of the most catches in a season by a running back in the NFL's post-merger era.

First, you might recall that Bush caught 88 passes for the New Orleans Saints in 2006, the start of a four-year stretch in which he made 260 receptions. Bush said Friday morning that the Detroit Lions' offense appears set to use him in a way similar to the Saints'.

"It's a lot like what we did in New Orleans," Bush said "It's a lot of spread ... passing. Obviously we can attack downfield, and with the running game. A lot of screens, draws. Just basically everything I did in New Orleans."

Meanwhile, Chicago Bears tailback Matt Forte will be playing in a scheme that got Charlie Garner 91 receptions for the Oakland Raiders in 2002. Bears coach Marc Trestman, of course, was the Raiders' offensive coordinator at the time.

Forte had at least 50 receptions in his first four seasons before dipping to 44 last season. He has proved to be an adept route runner in addition to excelling on screen plays and short passes into the flat.

"I would expect [to be used more in the new offense]," Forte told reporters last month. "Coach Trestman, I think he said he watched a lot of film on me and has seen me run different routes. So we'll get back to catching the ball out of the backfield like we did the prior years."

So we have two offenses that have supported 88-plus receptions by a running back in previous incarnations. Could Bush or Forte approach that number? Why not?

Related: Bush also appeared Friday morning on ESPN Radio. Here is a link.
Based on your feedback, at least, I didn't have all of my rocks in the box, or something like that, in writing the Green Bay Packers' portion of Friday's "Eight in the Box" series.

Bishop
Bishop
The assignment was to name a player whose health/recovery is vital to his team's success in 2013. For the Packers, I named offensive lineman Derek Sherrod and also mentioned tight end Andrew Quarless.

Phil of Platteville, Wis., begged to differ: "In response to your 'Eight in the Box' about players returning from injury: what about Desmond Bishop for the Packers? He was a big part of the defense in 2010 and '11 but missed all last year. It's still not clear whether he'll be able to return to the same level of play, but he has as good a chance as Sherrod and Quarless.

So did Bill of Lakeland, Minn.: "The one KEY player returning from injury to Green Bay is Nick Perry."

I can see both of those nominations, especially Bishop. His original omission probably reflects my own uncertainty about his future. The Packers' decision to give backup Brad Jones a contract that pays him $4 million this season continues to raise questions in my mind, even after the release of D.J. Smith.

I'm not sure how confident the Packers are in Bishop's return from a torn leg muscle. There is no doubt, however, that he would help their run defense and physicality if he can return to previous form.
» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

A look at key players for each NFC North team who are coming back from injuries:

Chicago Bears: Place-kicker Robbie Gould needed offseason surgery after rupturing a semitendinosus tendon in Week 15 and still hadn't been cleared to kick 13 weeks later. All indications are that Gould will be ready for training camp and should once again be the Bears' place-kicker in 2013. Since he entered the NFL in 2005, Gould has the seventh-best percentage of conversions (85.6) among place-kickers with at least 100 attempts, an especially notable standing considering the typically tough kicking conditions at Soldier Field. With all the other changes in the organization this offseason, the Bears need the reliability that Gould provides.

Detroit Lions: Safety Louis Delmas managed to play only 41.97 percent of the Lions' defensive snaps last season because of a knee injury that required surgery in training camp. Delmas' knees have been a bothersome issue for most of his career, and there has never been any doubt about the difference in the Lions' defense when he is in or out of the lineup. The team took a cautious approach to re-signing him in free agency, offering a modest deal that would pay him six-figure incentives for every game he plays if he manages to exceed his playing time from last season. The Lions signed free agent Glover Quin as well, but they need Delmas on the field.

Green Bay Packers: Two players who missed the 2012 season because of 2011 injuries could be in position to help the Packers in 2013. Offensive lineman Derek Sherrod had a second surgery this winter to finish repairing a leg he fractured in multiple places, and the Packers have hopes that he can compete for their open right tackle job. Tight end Andrew Quarless, meanwhile, is trying to get back on the field after blowing out his knee in December 2011. When healthy, Quarless might be the Packers' most balanced tight end in terms of receiving and blocking. Jermichael Finley is the team's top tight end, but Quarless could provide important versatility at the position.

Minnesota Vikings: Receiver Jerome Simpson's disappointing season in 2012 -- he caught 26 passes and no touchdowns in 12 games -- has been attributed in part to a mysterious back injury that decreased the explosiveness in his legs. The Vikings are hoping Simpson can regain the running and leaping abilities that helped him catch 50 passes for the Cincinnati Bengals in 2011. Although the Vikings signed Greg Jennings, they still need a veteran receiver who can get downfield -- especially while rookie Cordarrelle Patterson is given time to develop. Simpson is the team's best option there.

BBAO: Friday is upon us!

May, 17, 2013
May 17
8:30
AM ET
We're Black and Blue All Over:

Good mid-Friday morning and let's get straight to our morning tour:
  • Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune answers several questions about Chicago Bears guard Kyle Long in his weekly mailbag.
  • The Bears promoted Mark Sadowski to the position of senior national scout, notes Adam L. Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times.
  • Former Bears quarterback Jim Miller has taken a communications position with the team, according to Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News.
  • The mother of Titus Young's son has filed a restraining order against the former Detroit Lions receiver, according to the Associated Press.
  • Hall of Fame defensive lineman Mean Joe Greene on the Detroit Lions' Ndamukong Suh, via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press: "He is a powerful man. Unfortunately for him is that he's letting some of this notoriety and publicity get in his head a little bit. By that I mean it changes the way he approaches the game, cause if he changes that he's not Ndamukong anymore. And you need an edge to play in the pit. Anybody that talks about what you shouldn't do hasn't been in there. I think you have to play the game the way he does, but not go over the edge. A couple times he went over the edge, and he shouldn't be afraid of that."
  • The Lions' defense is gearing up to take on four quarterbacks who threw for at least 4,000 yards last season, notes Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com.
  • Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette is outraged that someone would question the job security of Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy.
  • Rob Demovsky of the Press-Gazette talks to former Packers running back Paul Hornung about "Titletown Five," a horse that will run in this weekend's Preakness in Baltimore.
  • Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton has proposed a cigarette tax to cover shortfalls in public revenues to build the Minnesota Vikings' new stadium. Jim Ragsdale of the Star Tribune explains.
  • The roof of the Vikings' new stadium is "self-cleaning," Vikings executive Lester Bagley told Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
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