NFC North: Chicago Bears
We're Black and Blue All Over:
Now that we've dissected Brian Urlacher's retirement and assessed his chances at enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, we should ask the next question: Will the Bears retire his No. 54?
That issue might be more complicated than the Hall of Fame. It would seem a natural next step, but the Bears already have 13 numbers retired in a sport where 90 players are taken to training camp and 53 make the final roster. It's worth noting that the Bears never retired the No. 50 of Hall of Fame middle linebacker Mike Singletary and actually put it back into circulation this spring when they signed free-agent linebacker James Anderson.
I appreciate all of you bearing with us Wednesday after Urlacher's announcement. We will now return to regularly scheduled May football coverage, starting with our morning tour around the division after a crazy-busy day:
Now that we've dissected Brian Urlacher's retirement and assessed his chances at enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, we should ask the next question: Will the Bears retire his No. 54?
That issue might be more complicated than the Hall of Fame. It would seem a natural next step, but the Bears already have 13 numbers retired in a sport where 90 players are taken to training camp and 53 make the final roster. It's worth noting that the Bears never retired the No. 50 of Hall of Fame middle linebacker Mike Singletary and actually put it back into circulation this spring when they signed free-agent linebacker James Anderson.
I appreciate all of you bearing with us Wednesday after Urlacher's announcement. We will now return to regularly scheduled May football coverage, starting with our morning tour around the division after a crazy-busy day:
- Michael Wilbon of ESPNChicago.com thinks the Bears will be able to replace Urlacher even though they should have signed him for one more season: "If [Dick] Butkus can beget Singletary and he can beget Urlacher, presumptuous as it seems to say, the next great Chicago linebacker is out there, somewhere, waiting for the privilege to be accepted into the rarest of football fraternities."
- David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune: "For a guy who came from tiny Lovington, N.M., Urlacher ideally fit an image immediately embraced by our big, blue-collar town. The face of the Bears franchise should feature a square jaw. Urlacher looked like a meat packer and worked as if he signed a time card instead of autographs. From his first day as a Bear to his last, Urlacher never considered himself special, which perhaps was why he became that way. No athlete since Michael Jordan symbolized Chicago more than Urlacher."
- Urlacher maintained the Bears' tradition of middle linebackers, writes Rick Telander of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- Detroit Lions receiver Nate Burleson has resumed practicing, two months ahead of schedule, after recovering from a broken leg. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News has more.
- The Lions need Ndamukong Sun and Nick Fairley to step up as leaders, writes John Niyo of the News.
- The Lions' development of defensive end Willie Young and offensive lineman Jason Fox will be telling, writes Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.
- Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew, via Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com: "I definitely took a step back last year. Kind of dinged up a little bit. Being in there, you're still expected to make the plays. Personally, I think I took a step back last year. It's time to get back to it, to what we had built a year before, just being a better player."
- In case you missed it, Lions safety Louis Delmas isn't participating in organized team activities.
- Packers defensive lineman Johnny Jolly has completed a court-ordered drug treatment program and is now free to begin working out with the team, according to Chris Roth of WBAY-Ch. 2.
- Packers cornerback Tramon Williams has stepped up as the leader of the team's secondary, writes Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers told the Jim Rome radio show that he hopes the team retires Brett Favre's No. 4 before he goes into the Hall of Fame. Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette has the quotes.
- Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen said there has been no discussions about a contract extension, according to Dan Wiederer of the Star Tribune. Allen is entering the final year of his deal.
- The Vikings won't have Urlacher as their middle linebacker this season, notes Ben Goessling of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
Don't count on a Brian Urlacher comeback
May, 22, 2013
May 22
5:25
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
It never seemed likely that the Minnesota Vikings would pursue Brian Urlacher in free agency, given their sharp turn toward youth over the past two years. And now it seems clear that Urlacher had little interest in a mercenary-style role with the Vikings or any other NFL team.
On the day he announced his retirement, Urlacher told ESPN 1000 that he could never get his mind around playing for another team and was especially averse to answering a midsummer emergency call. The Vikings are giving veteran Erin Henderson a spring look at the position, and the thought had been that only a season-ending injury or a complete flop would have prompted the Vikings to call Urlacher.
"I didn't want to put another jersey on for any other team," Urlacher said. "Obviously it wasn't going to be for the Bears this year, so I thought it was the right thing to do to shut it down. …
"We talked to every team in the NFL, and maybe in July or August it would have happened, but I'm not going to wait. I want to be somewhere where somebody wants me. I don't want to go somewhere where, 'Oh, so-and-so got hurt, we need you.' I don't want that to be the situation.
"The Bears offered me the contract they offered me, and that was probably the best contract I was going to get from anywhere. And I'm not going to put my body through what it goes through for what the offer was."
And for those of you wondering if Urlacher could be lured from retirement, he insisted he plans to file his retirement papers immediately and has no interest in a comeback.
You can listen to ESPN 1000's entire 20-minute interview here.
On the day he announced his retirement, Urlacher told ESPN 1000 that he could never get his mind around playing for another team and was especially averse to answering a midsummer emergency call. The Vikings are giving veteran Erin Henderson a spring look at the position, and the thought had been that only a season-ending injury or a complete flop would have prompted the Vikings to call Urlacher.
"I didn't want to put another jersey on for any other team," Urlacher said. "Obviously it wasn't going to be for the Bears this year, so I thought it was the right thing to do to shut it down. …
"We talked to every team in the NFL, and maybe in July or August it would have happened, but I'm not going to wait. I want to be somewhere where somebody wants me. I don't want to go somewhere where, 'Oh, so-and-so got hurt, we need you.' I don't want that to be the situation.
"The Bears offered me the contract they offered me, and that was probably the best contract I was going to get from anywhere. And I'm not going to put my body through what it goes through for what the offer was."
And for those of you wondering if Urlacher could be lured from retirement, he insisted he plans to file his retirement papers immediately and has no interest in a comeback.
You can listen to ESPN 1000's entire 20-minute interview here.
Calling Canton: Brian Urlacher's candidacy
May, 22, 2013
May 22
2:30
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
Reviewing the Pro Football Hall of Fame's list of middle linebackers is a sobering experience.
The position is well-represented, but almost all of the enshrinees -- Dick Butkus, Jack Lambert and Willie Lanier among them -- are drawn from a long-gone era of NFL defenses. In fact, former Chicago Bears star Mike Singletary is the only current Hall of Fame middle linebacker whose career started in the past 36 years.
The best case to be made for Brian Urlacher's candidacy, now that he has announced his retirement, is that his career reversed the decades-long decline in the value of the position. Along with the Baltimore Ravens' Ray Lewis, Urlacher modernized middle linebacking by adding speed and regular playmaking to the traditional role of helmet-jarring hits and fierce leadership.
Hall of Fame players can't simply be top performers over a period of NFL seasons. In a competitive environment where ballots are limited to five enshrinees per year, candidates must stand out. Some might be the best players in a generation, but if their position is as undervalued as middle linebacker has been over the past few decades, they also would need to have changed or impacted the game in a unique way.
I think Urlacher did that. It helped that he was drafted by a team that soon moved to a scheme that perfectly fit a middle linebacker who could run like a safety. It also helped that in his best years, Urlacher had some stud defensive tackles in front of him who limited free shots from offensive linemen.
Regardless, the Bears' defense in the Lovie Smith era wouldn't have worked without Urlacher covering the deep third of the field while also holding his own at the line of scrimmage. His ability to get 25 yards downfield, in between chasing runners from sideline to sideline, was a new development for the modern-day middle linebacker.
When Urlacher was sidelined, for 15 games in 2009 and four games last season, the Bears' defense dipped noticeably and obviously, especially against the pass. In the games that Urlacher missed over that stretch, opponents' Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) rose from 39.5 to 60.1 (on a scale of 0-100), according to ESPN Stats & Information.
He is one of four players in NFL history with at least 40 sacks and 20 interceptions in his career, as the chart shows, and he is one of seven players to win the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year award. Of the other six, three are in the Hall of Fame and two others aren't yet eligible.
Urlacher's résumé of sustained elite performances, even after his 2009 wrist injury, and his notable impact on how the game is played merit Hall of Fame enshrinement. How long it will take for him to be elected is almost a silly discussion. We don't know what the backlog will be like in 2018, but there is a pretty strong group of players who will be eligible for the first time alongside Urlacher. The group includes Lewis, Steve Hutchinson, Ronde Barber and perhaps Randy Moss.
Timing, of course, is but a detail. I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion between now and then. But you would think Canton has room for Brian Urlacher. Frankly, he made that space for himself.
Congratulations to the Arizona Cardinals, who for the time being at least have won the unofficial contest for best reaction to Brian Urlacher's retirement with this tweet:
The reference, of course, is to what almost certainly was the best game of Urlacher's career. In the Chicago Bears' legendary 24-23 victory over the Cardinals, Urlacher finished with 25 tackles (according to the Bears' coaching film), two quarterback hurries, two pass breakups and a forced fumble.
Afterward, then-Cardinals coach Dennis Green unloaded with his own legendary reaction, saying the Bears "are who we thought they were" and that the Cardinals "let them off the hook." It wasn't the proudest moment in Cardinals history, so kudos to them for making light of it to honor an opponent's retirement.
You were who we thought you were. Congrats. RT @BUrlacher54: It was an honor to play my entire career for the @ChicagoBears.
The reference, of course, is to what almost certainly was the best game of Urlacher's career. In the Chicago Bears' legendary 24-23 victory over the Cardinals, Urlacher finished with 25 tackles (according to the Bears' coaching film), two quarterback hurries, two pass breakups and a forced fumble.
Afterward, then-Cardinals coach Dennis Green unloaded with his own legendary reaction, saying the Bears "are who we thought they were" and that the Cardinals "let them off the hook." It wasn't the proudest moment in Cardinals history, so kudos to them for making light of it to honor an opponent's retirement.

What made Brian Urlacher special? You have to start, of course, with the way a 6-foot-4, 258-pound man could run, hit and organize a defense on the field. But even an occasional in-person observer of the Chicago Bears over the past decade could notice the reverential stature Urlacher held with his teammates.
If he had enemies, they never surfaced. Urlacher mixed equal doses of dry humor, man's-man competitiveness and two-way respect to keep the Bears' locker room humming smoothly and largely conflict-free during his tenure. So in the moments after Urlacher announced his retirement, I caught up with former Bears defensive lineman Dusty Dvoracek -- who now hosts a sports radio talk show on The Sports Talk Network in Norman, Okla. -- to get a better sense for how Urlacher managed to cast such a popular web.
"Once you became a teammate of Brian Urlacher, you would get the best teammate you could ever ask for," Dvoracek said. "He was one of the biggest superstars in the NFL, but he acted like an average Joe, even to people coming in as a rookie. That matters to people and they don't forget it.
"The first week I was there, he opened up his house and invited me over. It wasn't just me. It was everybody. Not just me. Everybody. He tried to make it as easy and as comfortable for everyone. He was very accepting if you were on his team. He wanted you to do well so the team would do well."
In big media settings, of course, Urlacher could be as grumpy as any player I've covered. His answers could be short, snippy and designed to end the questioning altogether. I told Dvoracek that it was always fascinating to me that a player who seemed as cranky as Urlacher could be so universally hailed and beloved as a leader.
"He is about as opposite of that as you can be in personal life," Dvoracek said. "He really is as nice and as kindhearted a guy as you're going to find in the NFL. A lot of guys put on a show for [the] camera, and behind it they're a jerk. I don't want to say that Brian was the reverse because I don't think he was a jerk to the cameras, but what we saw behind the scenes was genuine and real.
"I mean, he really is a happy guy. He loves to compete at everything he does. He's good at everything. It ticks you off. Whether you're playing pingpong, shuffleboard, basketball or golf, he's really good at everything he does. He's super competitive but really just likes to have a good time with the guys."
Even competitors recognized and appreciated that approach. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers told the Chicago Tribune earlier this spring that "I always appreciated his ability to enjoy the game while being competitive. He plays the game with a lot of class and professionalism. He does it the right way."
Rodgers added that when playing the Bears, "you never had to worry about cheap shots around the pile or after the whistle. They played the right way and it was led by Brian."
Emotions always run high when a superstar retires, and those who spent time around him tend to wax nostalgic. They are already beginning the work toward cementing a legend. Based on what we've heard about Urlacher over the years, that work shouldn't be hard.
In the wake of Brian Urlacher's announcement that his 13th NFL season would be his last, current and former NFL players took to Twitter to send out tributes to the future Hall of Fame Bears linebacker.
Fans also sent their thoughts via our NFC North Twitter account (@espn_nfnblog). Here are some of the highlights.
Fans also sent their thoughts via our NFC North Twitter account (@espn_nfnblog). Here are some of the highlights.
Brian Urlacher admirably accepts his lot
May, 22, 2013
May 22
11:40
AM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com

Congratulations to linebacker Brian Urlacher, who found peace and satisfaction with his 13-year career Wednesday rather than extending it beyond what felt organic to everyone -- most importantly him.
The assumption has always been that Urlacher, who turns 35 on Saturday, would play for the Chicago Bears or no one in 2013. He parted ways with the Bears in March, and on Wednesday he confirmed the latter part of that supposition. In announcing his retirement, Urlacher acknowledged with stark honesty that "I'm not sure I would bring a level of performance or passion that's up to my standards."
Many potential Hall of Famers change teams before ending their careers, but few were in the position Urlacher faced this offseason. The Bears appeared ambivalent at best about his return, and if he received an offer from another team, it has not been reported. In essence, Urlacher was waiting for another middle linebacker to suffer a season-ending injury or for another team to grow dissatisfied with its starter.
In either event, Urlacher would have been nothing more than a low-paid mercenary after 13 years as one of the NFL's top players. I don't blame him a bit for feeling conflicted about those prospects, especially considering the value he placed in his statement to having played exclusively for the Bears over the years.
We'll have more on Urlacher's career a bit later on the blog, including the obvious question: Will he be elected to the Hall of Fame? But for now, let's recognize and praise Urlacher for accepting his lot rather than allowing pride to cloud his judgment.
As rosters shake out this summer, you'll hear a fair amount about the "youngest" and "oldest" teams in the NFL. Sometimes those figures and rankings can be skewed by aged kickers or an exceptionally youthful set of reserves, so I like what colleague Mike Sando compiled this week over on the NFC West blog.
Sando has a comprehensive chart ranking teams by the average age of their projected starters, ostensibly the most important 22 players on the roster. (Specialists weren't included, mostly because age isn't as relevant for them.) Naturally, there are some best guesses involved when you're looking at a starting lineup in May, but most teams have provided enough clues either through minicamps or organized team activities (OTAs) to make a reasonable projection.
As it turns out, the Chicago Bears have the NFL's oldest set of starters when viewed in this way. As it stands now, their starting defense includes four players who are at least 30 and two more who are 29. That figure could change if either (or both) of their two rookie linebackers, Jon Bostic (22) and Khaseem Greene (22) win a starting job. But for now, the Bears' starting linebackers are Lance Briggs (32), D.J. Williams (30) and James Anderson (29). They are set to play alongside defensive end Julius Peppers (33), cornerback Charles Tillman (32) and cornerback Tim Jennings (29).
The Detroit Lions rank No. 16 overall largely because their offensive starters are the NFL's sixth-oldest, headed by center Dominic Raiola (34), receiver Nate Burleson (31) and tight end Tony Scheffler (30). For the purposes of this projection, Corey Hilliard (28) is considered the right tackle over Jason Fox (25).
Meanwhile, starters from the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers rank among the NFL's nine youngest.
Making a value judgment here is much harder than compiling the figures. Younger isn't necessarily better, especially at key positions, unless it represents a longer-term fixture at the position. And in some cases, age represents the staying power of an elite player. For 2013, at least, I'm sure the Bears would prefer Briggs over, say, the Lions' DeAndre Levy (26) or the Packers' Nick Perry (23).
NFL team-building can be cyclical, however. What we can say, I think, is that teams with older starters have more urgency to identify and develop their next generation of players. Presumably, those with younger starters have already begun that process.
Related: The Packers and Vikings lead the division, respectively, with draft picks remaining on their roster.
Sando has a comprehensive chart ranking teams by the average age of their projected starters, ostensibly the most important 22 players on the roster. (Specialists weren't included, mostly because age isn't as relevant for them.) Naturally, there are some best guesses involved when you're looking at a starting lineup in May, but most teams have provided enough clues either through minicamps or organized team activities (OTAs) to make a reasonable projection.
As it turns out, the Chicago Bears have the NFL's oldest set of starters when viewed in this way. As it stands now, their starting defense includes four players who are at least 30 and two more who are 29. That figure could change if either (or both) of their two rookie linebackers, Jon Bostic (22) and Khaseem Greene (22) win a starting job. But for now, the Bears' starting linebackers are Lance Briggs (32), D.J. Williams (30) and James Anderson (29). They are set to play alongside defensive end Julius Peppers (33), cornerback Charles Tillman (32) and cornerback Tim Jennings (29).
The Detroit Lions rank No. 16 overall largely because their offensive starters are the NFL's sixth-oldest, headed by center Dominic Raiola (34), receiver Nate Burleson (31) and tight end Tony Scheffler (30). For the purposes of this projection, Corey Hilliard (28) is considered the right tackle over Jason Fox (25).
Meanwhile, starters from the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers rank among the NFL's nine youngest.
Making a value judgment here is much harder than compiling the figures. Younger isn't necessarily better, especially at key positions, unless it represents a longer-term fixture at the position. And in some cases, age represents the staying power of an elite player. For 2013, at least, I'm sure the Bears would prefer Briggs over, say, the Lions' DeAndre Levy (26) or the Packers' Nick Perry (23).
NFL team-building can be cyclical, however. What we can say, I think, is that teams with older starters have more urgency to identify and develop their next generation of players. Presumably, those with younger starters have already begun that process.
Related: The Packers and Vikings lead the division, respectively, with draft picks remaining on their roster.
We're Black and Blue All Over:
The Green Bay Packers lost a promising rookie -- perhaps for the season -- on the first day of their organized team activities (OTAs), according to multiple reports. Offensive lineman J.C. Tretter, a fourth-round draft pick who was being trained at multiple positions, broke his ankle and tore ligaments during Monday's opening OTA. His agent believes he will miss six months.
Monday's practice was closed to the media but reporters noted that Tretter was not in attendance Tuesday. Packers coach Mike McCarthy did not comment on the nature of the injury, but agent Alan Herman told Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com and Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the injury occurred when his foot got stuck in the turf while sliding during a fumble recovery drill.
Tretter didn't figure as starter or even a key backup in 2013, but if nothing else the Packers will lose valuable development time with a long-term prospect. It's also an auspicious start to spring practices a few months after McCarthy said the team was working to explain why it has been beset by so many injuries in recent years. You figure Tretter will open training camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and it's possible he will miss the entire season.
Continuing around the NFC North:
The Green Bay Packers lost a promising rookie -- perhaps for the season -- on the first day of their organized team activities (OTAs), according to multiple reports. Offensive lineman J.C. Tretter, a fourth-round draft pick who was being trained at multiple positions, broke his ankle and tore ligaments during Monday's opening OTA. His agent believes he will miss six months.
Monday's practice was closed to the media but reporters noted that Tretter was not in attendance Tuesday. Packers coach Mike McCarthy did not comment on the nature of the injury, but agent Alan Herman told Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com and Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the injury occurred when his foot got stuck in the turf while sliding during a fumble recovery drill.
Tretter didn't figure as starter or even a key backup in 2013, but if nothing else the Packers will lose valuable development time with a long-term prospect. It's also an auspicious start to spring practices a few months after McCarthy said the team was working to explain why it has been beset by so many injuries in recent years. You figure Tretter will open training camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list and it's possible he will miss the entire season.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Packers cornerback Sam Shields skipped Tuesday's OTA, notes Dunne for the Journal Sentinel. Shields is a restricted free agent who hasn't signed his tender yet.
- Former Packers defensive back Charles Woodson returned to the Oakland Raiders, the team he played for before signing with the Packers in 2005.
- Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette reviews the changes in the Packers' offensive line.
- Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte and cornerback Tim Jennings are part of the USO Illinois Pro Tour, currently visiting injured soldiers in Germany, notes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com. As a result, they did not participate in Tuesday's OTA.
- Bears linebacker Lance Briggs said he has become more vocal following the departure of middle linebacker Brian Urlacher. Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune has more.
- Monday's tornado in Oklahoma hit home for Bears rookie punter Tress Way, who is participating in OTAs. More from Dickerson for ESPNChicago.com.
- Bears place-kicker Robbie Gould has been cleared to resume kicking and should be on the practice field Thursday, according to Dickerson for ESPNChicago.com.
- Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson is getting used to a new position coach, writes Justin Rogers of Mlive.com.
- Terry Foster of the Detroit News on Lions rookie defensive end Devin Taylor: "He wants to be a monster during the play and low key when it is over. Do not stereotype Taylor as the typical loudmouth SEC player from South Carolina. He is not."
- The Lions and Ford Field are trying to host their own college bowl game, notes the Detroit Free Press.
- The Minnesota Vikings waived tackle Mark Jackson, notes Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com.
- Three firms are bidding for the contract to build the parking and skyway infrastructure around the Vikings' new stadium. More from Richard Meryhew of the Star Tribune.
Vince Lombardi, George Halas and rankings
May, 21, 2013
May 21
5:00
PM ET
By
Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com
As you might have noticed, ESPN and ESPN.com will begin counting down the top 20 coaches in NFL history later this week. Trey Wingo provides the basic parameters in the video, and from an NFC North perspective, this list is going to boil down to where a pair of historic figures show up: The Green Bay Packers' Vince Lombardi and the Chicago Bears' George Halas.
Two ballots have already been revealed. ESPN's Rick Reilly put Lombardi at No. 1 and Halas at No. 5. But in an Insider post
Edwards noted that Halas coached for 40 seasons and added: "All he did was win six NFL titles and compile a record of 324-151-31 (.682), while sustaining a competitive team over his entire coaching career. Perhaps his most impressive statistic is that his teams were under .500 in only six of his 40 seasons."
I'll bring your attention to any ranking that involves an NFC North-related coach over the next few weeks.
Getty ImagesJim Schwartz, center, and Leslie Frazier, right, weren't nearly as frisky as Mike McCarthy was on fourth-down plays in 2012.There was an obvious test case. Ever since David Romer's groundbreaking 2006 paper, advanced analysts have encouraged NFL coaches to be more aggressive on fourth down. Research showed that the cost of failing was not as severe as conventional wisdom might suggest, especially when compared to the benefits and likelihood of success.
If anything, however, Schwartz has fallen on the conservative side of his already-cautious NFL brethren, providing us an NFC North illustration of the larger trend. Despite objective research and data, coaches still have relatively little stomach for eschewing field goals and punts in favor of the possibility for a touchdown or continuing a drive.
Our friends at Football Outsiders recently published a ranking of the Aggressiveness Index for every 2012 coach, measuring how often he went for it on fourth down relative to the league average. The study includes fakes but eliminates obvious catch-up situations as well as plays in the final 10 seconds of a half.
As you can see in the chart below, the NFC North's most aggressive coach last season was the Green Bay Packers' Mike McCarthy, who went for it 11 times in 108 qualifying opportunities. Close observers of the Packers' season, of course, would recognize that at least a few of those occasions were partially related to place-kicker Mason Crosby's midseason slump.
Minnesota Vikings coach Leslie Frazier went for it four times in 104 opportunities, while Schwartz did so on only two of 98, the second-lowest total in the NFL.
Why am I circling back on this topic now? As NFC West colleague Mike Sando and I discussed during an Inside Slant podcast last November, the NFL arrival of former Oregon coach Chip Kelly could shake up current thinking on fourth downs in the way that Schwartz's mere interest in the general topic of advanced analysis did not.
Kelly's aggressiveness on fourth down at Oregon wasn't necessarily an outlier in the college game but would surely stand out in his new role with the Philadelphia Eagles. (As the Philadelphia Daily News noted, Oregon converted 20 of 31 fourth-down attempts last season, double what most NFL teams tried.)
Kelly has downplayed his potential to carry over those trends to the NFL, telling the Daily News that there is a "fallacy and reality" to what he did. His place-kicker's leg strength played a role in decisions, Kelly said, and rarely did he go for it on his side of the field -- a riskier proposition to be sure.
Regardless, here's hoping that Kelly provides a spark that will spread in a copycat league. Fourth downs are the kind of dramatic and intensely strategic plays that can add another layer of intrigue to a game and spur an entire week of conversation and debate.
Consider one of the simplest examples from the original paper Romer wrote as an economics professor at Cal-Berkley.
It's fourth down and goal at the 2-yard line early in a game, a scenario that provides a near-automatic field goal. According to Romer's research, going for it in that situation historically led to a touchdown 43 percent of the time.
Most coaches look at those odds and choose the 100 percent chance of three points rather than about a 50-50 chance of seven. The analyst would say the expected payoff is about the same.
Why? If you fall short of the touchdown, the opponent takes over inside the 3-yard line. Historically, you're still in pretty good position to get the ball back close to scoring position.
My guess is it will take a long time to drag even the most free-thinking coaches into a more aggressive fourth-down approach. The bottom line is that it's scary to give up a near-certain chance for points at a given moment. But that doesn't mean we can't hope. This season, I'll do my best to track our coaches' decisions in such situations and compare them to the risks presented by historical research. We'll see where it goes.
I'm willing to chat on May 21 if you are. I'm sure we'll find plenty to talk about as organized team activities continue around the NFC North. See you over at SportsNation at 2 p.m. ET.
We're Black and Blue All Over:
Why is the NFL considering a reorganization of its offseason schedule, as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter? Naturally, to avoid the kind of quiet period that leaves players, teams and media members fighting over whether someone has broken fingers or simply injured ones.
That about sums up the silly fracas that erupted Monday after Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson seemed to confirm that he played much of last season with broken fingers on his left hand. (He replied, "I had a couple injuries to them, yeah," according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.) The Lions' website initially reported his comments as confirmation but later updated its story to say: "While Johnson did admit to suffering finger injuries, he did not specifically state that he did suffer a break."
The basic point we made Monday should stand: Johnson set an NFL record for receiving yards in a season with significant injuries to one of the most important body parts on a wide receiver. Whether they were broken, mangled, bruised, cut or any injured in any other way, the revelation adds a layer to his historic season.
Why the fuss over the exact diagnosis? Time. Time. Too much time.
(That and perhaps concern about an injury report violation. Johnson was never listed with a broken finger last season, and this isn't the first time Johnson has seemed to describe an injury that the Lions never listed him with.)
Continuing around the NFC North:
Why is the NFL considering a reorganization of its offseason schedule, as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter? Naturally, to avoid the kind of quiet period that leaves players, teams and media members fighting over whether someone has broken fingers or simply injured ones.
That about sums up the silly fracas that erupted Monday after Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson seemed to confirm that he played much of last season with broken fingers on his left hand. (He replied, "I had a couple injuries to them, yeah," according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.) The Lions' website initially reported his comments as confirmation but later updated its story to say: "While Johnson did admit to suffering finger injuries, he did not specifically state that he did suffer a break."
The basic point we made Monday should stand: Johnson set an NFL record for receiving yards in a season with significant injuries to one of the most important body parts on a wide receiver. Whether they were broken, mangled, bruised, cut or any injured in any other way, the revelation adds a layer to his historic season.
Why the fuss over the exact diagnosis? Time. Time. Too much time.
(That and perhaps concern about an injury report violation. Johnson was never listed with a broken finger last season, and this isn't the first time Johnson has seemed to describe an injury that the Lions never listed him with.)
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Johnson said he is praying for his former teammate Titus Young. Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com has more.
- Chicago Bears place-kicker Robbie Gould (calf) could be cleared to join organized team activities (OTAs) this week, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
- Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune speaks with former NFL offensive lineman LeCharles Bentley, who is training Bears lineman Gabe Carimi this offseason. Carimi is working with Bentley rather than attend OTAs.
- The Bears terminated the contract of defensive lineman Andre Fluellen, notes Michael C. Wright of ESPNChicago.com.
- Rookie Green Bay Packers receiver Kevin Dorsey has a plan for success, writes Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- The Packers are looking for a viable return man to replace Randall Cobb, and Jeremy Ross is the first on the list, writes Weston Hodkiewicz of the Green Bay Press-Gazette.
- From the Associated Press, the Minnesota legislature is "temporarily rerouting money from a new cigarette tax and from a corporate tax to backfill a lagging stadium fund" for the Minnesota Vikings' new stadium.
- Charity leaders are beginning a promotional tour for the original source of revenues, e-pulltabs, so they can be used in future years. More from Jean Hopfensperger of the Star Tribune.
We're Black and Blue All Over:
We're down to five unsigned draft choices here in the NFC North after the Chicago Bears wrapped up contracts for their 2013 class over the weekend. First-round draft pick Kyle Long agreed to terms on a four-year deal, with a team option for a fifth, a move that gets 30 of this division's 35 draft picks under contract.
Those unsigned include four first-round picks and one second-rounder. They include the Minnesota Vikings' Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes and Cordarrelle Patterson; and the Green Bay Packers' Datone Jones and Eddie Lacy.
Unsigned draft choices are free to participate in offseason programs and in essence have until the start of training camp before their contracts become an issue.
Continuing around the NFC North:
We're down to five unsigned draft choices here in the NFC North after the Chicago Bears wrapped up contracts for their 2013 class over the weekend. First-round draft pick Kyle Long agreed to terms on a four-year deal, with a team option for a fifth, a move that gets 30 of this division's 35 draft picks under contract.
Those unsigned include four first-round picks and one second-rounder. They include the Minnesota Vikings' Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes and Cordarrelle Patterson; and the Green Bay Packers' Datone Jones and Eddie Lacy.
Unsigned draft choices are free to participate in offseason programs and in essence have until the start of training camp before their contracts become an issue.
Continuing around the NFC North:
- Bears fans should realize their team is in the same boat with backup quarterback Josh McCown as most of the NFL, writes Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune. Pompei: "As quarterback play has become more important, the notion of a backup superhero has become increasingly quaint. There are more desirable ones than McCown, certainly. But not many."
- Former Bears coach Mike Ditka checks in with the Chicago Sun-Times on Jay Cutler's football IQ and other issues.
- Detroit Lions linebacker Stephen Tulloch said that former Lions receiver Titus Young confided in him about mental illness. Tulloch would not specify Young's issues, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
- The Lions' upcoming organized team activities should begin to answer the team's questions, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.
- Free-agent defensive back Charles Woodson isn't opposed to playing for the Lions, notes Anwar S. Richardson of Mlive.com. The question is to what extent the Lions would have interest.
- Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop is pledging to be "110 percent" by the time training camp begins, according to Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Bishop is still recovering from a torn hamstring muscle suffered last summer.
- Packers Hall of Fame quarterback Bart Starr, via Jason Wilde of ESPNMilwaukee.com: "The greatest mistake I made in my life was to coach. It's a great lesson that could apply to any of us. Because I didn't plan to, I hadn't prepared to. And I didn't have the guts to say to the Green Bay Packers, 'Thank you, but no thank you. I'm not going to do it.' I wasn't prepared, and it showed over the first few years. I felt very, very badly about that."
- Mike Vandermause of the Green Bay Press-Gazette on rookie Packers running backs Lacy and Johnathan Franklin: "It’s entirely possible both will be used extensively this season and complement each other while giving Aaron Rodgers and his receivers some room to breathe."
- Vikings cornerback Chris Cook says he is ready to handle opponents' top receivers. Tom Pelissero of 1500ESPN.com has more.
- Vikings linebacker Erin Henderson was part of a journalism boot camp earlier this month, writes Mark Craig of the Star Tribune.
- Neighbors of the new Vikings stadium have mixed reviews, writes Richard Meryhew of the Star Tribune.
Football Outsiders, a statistics-based analysis service, has been producing division-by-division Insider files on remaining team needs. You'll need a subscription to read the entire NFC North post
, but below I've taken a few excerpts and written a few things about them.
Chicago Bears
Football Outsiders' issue: Receiver
Football Outsiders comment: "When we pointed to wide receiver as a major flaw for the current Bears early in the offseason, it was to the consternation of a lot of Bears fans who saw the offensive line as the larger issue. The problem is that Jay Cutler is a see-it, throw-it passer. He's still a solid quarterback, but he's never thrown receivers open on a consistent basis. That amplifies the Bears' receiving problems, and while scheming can create the occasional big play for Devin Hester, Eric Weems, or Earl Bennett, they can't defeat man coverage often enough to benefit Cutler."
Seifert comment: I'm not on board with describing Cutler as a "see-it, throw-it" passer. If anything, his arm strength and velocity give him too much confidence when it comes to throwing receivers open. (The phrase refers to putting the ball in a place that an otherwise covered receiver can catch it). I wouldn't argue that Bears' need for additional depth behind Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Bennett, but it's not because of any passing limitation on Cutler's part. There's just not much else behind them, especially as long as Hester works solely with special teams.
Detroit Lions
Football Outsiders' issue: Offensive line
Football Outsiders comment: "The strength of this line in recent seasons has been pass blocking, as Detroit's offense has finished in the top 10 in adjusted sack rate for the past three seasons, but that is likely to take a hit from this offseason's turnover."
Seifert comment: On the other hand, the Lions' new offensive line might be a better run-blocking group. That aspect has taken a back seat in recent years. I do think, however, that it's worth being concerned about putting your franchise quarterback behind a line with at least three first-time starters.
Green Bay Packers
Football Outsiders' issue: Offensive line
Football Outsiders comment: "[M]uch like the Lions, the Packers are putting their faith in their quarterback to evade the pass rush this season. Unlike the Lions, the Packers don't have a lot of personnel turnover in this unit, but, also unlike the Lions, they finished second-to-last in adjusted sack rate last season."
Seifert comment: There would be those who suggest that flipping the left and right sides of your line is football version of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But every quarterback needs more help from their blind-side pass blockers. If you're going to have a strength and a weakness, it makes sense to shore up the left side first.
Minnesota Vikings
Football Outsiders' issue: Middle linebacker
Football Outsiders comment: "Erin Henderson and Chad Greenway can take care of things in Leslie Frazier's nickel fronts, but the base 4-3 is lacking a thumper after Jasper Brinkley's departure in free agency. (Of course, given Brinkley's broken-tackle rate, they probably were lacking one even if he had come back)."
Seifert comment: The Vikings clearly fell short in their attempts to find a long-term solution at this position during the offseason. They will give Henderson a chance to grow into it during organized team activities, but he was not their first choice. This position could well be atop their list of 2014 needs as well.
Chicago Bears
Football Outsiders' issue: Receiver
Football Outsiders comment: "When we pointed to wide receiver as a major flaw for the current Bears early in the offseason, it was to the consternation of a lot of Bears fans who saw the offensive line as the larger issue. The problem is that Jay Cutler is a see-it, throw-it passer. He's still a solid quarterback, but he's never thrown receivers open on a consistent basis. That amplifies the Bears' receiving problems, and while scheming can create the occasional big play for Devin Hester, Eric Weems, or Earl Bennett, they can't defeat man coverage often enough to benefit Cutler."
Seifert comment: I'm not on board with describing Cutler as a "see-it, throw-it" passer. If anything, his arm strength and velocity give him too much confidence when it comes to throwing receivers open. (The phrase refers to putting the ball in a place that an otherwise covered receiver can catch it). I wouldn't argue that Bears' need for additional depth behind Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Bennett, but it's not because of any passing limitation on Cutler's part. There's just not much else behind them, especially as long as Hester works solely with special teams.
Detroit Lions
Football Outsiders' issue: Offensive line
Football Outsiders comment: "The strength of this line in recent seasons has been pass blocking, as Detroit's offense has finished in the top 10 in adjusted sack rate for the past three seasons, but that is likely to take a hit from this offseason's turnover."
Seifert comment: On the other hand, the Lions' new offensive line might be a better run-blocking group. That aspect has taken a back seat in recent years. I do think, however, that it's worth being concerned about putting your franchise quarterback behind a line with at least three first-time starters.
Green Bay Packers
Football Outsiders' issue: Offensive line
Football Outsiders comment: "[M]uch like the Lions, the Packers are putting their faith in their quarterback to evade the pass rush this season. Unlike the Lions, the Packers don't have a lot of personnel turnover in this unit, but, also unlike the Lions, they finished second-to-last in adjusted sack rate last season."
Seifert comment: There would be those who suggest that flipping the left and right sides of your line is football version of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. But every quarterback needs more help from their blind-side pass blockers. If you're going to have a strength and a weakness, it makes sense to shore up the left side first.
Minnesota Vikings
Football Outsiders' issue: Middle linebacker
Football Outsiders comment: "Erin Henderson and Chad Greenway can take care of things in Leslie Frazier's nickel fronts, but the base 4-3 is lacking a thumper after Jasper Brinkley's departure in free agency. (Of course, given Brinkley's broken-tackle rate, they probably were lacking one even if he had come back)."
Seifert comment: The Vikings clearly fell short in their attempts to find a long-term solution at this position during the offseason. They will give Henderson a chance to grow into it during organized team activities, but he was not their first choice. This position could well be atop their list of 2014 needs as well.
NFC NORTH SCOREBOARD
Sunday, 9/8
1:00 PM ET Cincinnati Chicago 1:00 PM ET Minnesota Detroit 4:25 PM ET Green Bay San Francisco

Brian Urlacher has announced his retirement. Where does he rank among the best linebackers of all time?
