Most important game: Arizona

April, 30, 2013
Apr 30
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Every game counts. But some games count more. Or tell us more.

We've gone through the Pac-12 and picked out one game that seems most important -- or potentially most revealing -- for each team from our vantage point today.

And then we let you vote from a list of potential options.

Here's our last entry.

Arizona

Most important game: Nov. 30 at Arizona State

Why it's important: Kevin already has written that this is Arizona State's "Most Important Game." I tend to agree, though, I think you could make a case for the Sun Devils game at UCLA on Nov. 23.

SportsNation

Most important 2013 game for Arizona?

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    48%
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    28%
  •  
    7%
  •  
    12%
  •  
    5%

Discuss (Total votes: 2,642)

The Sun Devils visit to UCLA, while not a highly charged rivalry game, probably will play a bigger role in deciding the Pac-12's South Division than their hosting Arizona in the final regular-season game.

Of course, this Pac-12 blog series has required a lot of "What if?" thinking, often also asking for the suspension of pure emotions in favor of big picture thinking. And by "the suspension of pure emotions," I mean, for example, all the Arizona fans who already are fuming that their "Most Important Game" Pac-12 blog entry started off with two -- TWO! -- paragraphs that focused on those louts at Tempe Normal.

Two paragraphs on the Sun Devils! HIJACKING OUR ENTRY! Arrrraghhhh!

Let's put it this way: The 2013 Territorial Cup is bigger for Arizona than Arizona State, no matter that the expectations are higher for the Sun Devils next fall.

Arizona State won at Arizona last year, overcoming a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to win, 41-34. That gave Todd Graham a 1-0 edge over Rich Rodriguez for the first-year head coaches in the rivalry game. Those old acquaintances do not have a particularly warm relationship, so they already fully "feel" the emotions of this rivalry.

If Graham improved to 2-0 versus Rich Rod, and then his Sun Devils advanced to the Pac-12 title game as the South Division champions, you could officially declare a small stagger had appeared between the programs. It wouldn't be irreversible by any means, but 730 days of gloating from your rival can be hard to stomach.

Let's start with an optimistic vision of Arizona's upcoming season.

The Wildcats pillow-soft nonconference slate means they will almost certainly start 3-0. Missing Stanford and Oregon State also is a boost in terms of scheduling degree of difficulty. If they answer questions at quarterback and on defense, this team could be a darkhorse contender in the South Division. Even though Arizona State, UCLA and USC are seen as the division favorites, the perceived distance between those three and the Wildcats is far from vast.

In fact, if things fall Arizona's way, the Territorial Cup could have South Division implications. Just imagine, Wildcats fans, how much fun it would be to not only win the South and earn a shot at the program's first Rose Bowl but also to dump the Sun Devils, who were widely viewed as division favorites in the preseason. And doing that in their own house, though that's not uncommon in a rivalry where the home team has lost four in a row.

The less optimistic vision of Arizona's upcoming season -- 7-5 looks like a good over-under for this team -- could be salvaged with a win over Arizona State, particularly if that knocks the Sun Devils out of the top spot in the division.

Even if the Sun Devils didn't need a Territorial Cup victory to win the South, Arizona State's enjoyment of its division title would be significantly watered down if they had to listen to crowing Wildcats fans:
Sparky: "We won the South!"

Wilbur: "Scoreboard, baby!"

The Pac-12 blog's ultimate hope is this rivalry game develops into a showdown of ranked teams. That way national attention could come to one of the nation's most underrated rivalries in terms of pure, unadulterated dislike.

Maybe that happens this year.

Or maybe I should write another paragraph about the Sun Devils?
video
Washington athletic director Scott Woodward talks with Ted Miller about remodeled Husky Stadium and the upcoming College Football Playoff.
The wicked are wicked, no doubt, and they go astray and they fall, and they come by their deserts; but who can tell the mischief which the very virtuous do?
The 2013 NFL draft was terrible for the Pac-12. It was worse than any draft since 2000.

Well, other than 2012, when the draft looked a lot like the one last weekend, with 28 players also picked. The conference had 28 players picked in 2010, but that was a 10-team conference.

In short, the last two years haven't been good for the conference in terms of NFL love, and that matters in terms of national perception of how good the conference really is. Perception matters, both within our subjective systems for measuring college football teams against each other and for how recruits perceive conferences and teams.

Meanwhile, there's the SEC, which over the weekend probably posted the greatest numbers for a college conference in NFL draft history, with 63 selections, including 32 in the first three rounds. Even when you break it down by per team numbers, the SEC's 4.5 picks per team far outstrips the Pac-12's 2.33 players per team.

This is not old news, folks. The SEC hasn't long dominated the NFL draft, as some might try to convince you. The Pac-10, in fact, had decisively better per team numbers in 2008 (3.4 vs. 2.92) and was also better in 2009 (3.2 vs. 3.1).

Even last year, the SEC wasn't that far ahead of the rest of the FBS conferences. Remember the woeful Big Ten, much maligned for its terrible 2013 draft numbers? It had 41 players drafted in 2012, just one fewer than the SEC.

The SEC did have a huge 2010 draft with 49 players selected (4.1 per team), so the present momentum isn't entirely new. It's just the "Wow" factor this go-around seems more substantial as a pattern. And meaningful.

Yet this long lead-in, which might have glazed over some eyeballs, isn't about looking back. It's about looking ahead, with both hope and concern for the Pac-12 and, really, the rest of college football.

You might have heard this: The SEC has won seven consecutive BCS national titles. That makes it reasonable to view the conference as a favorite to make it eight in a row before we jump into a four-team playoff in 2014. And many believe the SEC will then dominate that playoff.

I feel I'm being optimistic for the other AQ conferences when I respond, "Maybe."

So I asked myself a question while being agog over the SEC draft numbers: That should come with a noticeable talent drain, correct? I know SEC recruiting also rates highly, but losing 4.5 NFL draftable players per team, with much of that coming from the perennial powers, has to have an impact.

Right?

Well, in terms of 2013 returning starters, the Pac-12 stacks up well with the SEC. While returning starters numbers are a bit fluid (and often overrated), my review has the SEC averaging 14.6 returning starters compared to 16.3 for the Pac-12.

But that's not the Pac-12's entry point.

It's this:
  • The SEC's top-six teams (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida and South Carolina) average 12.3 returning starters.
  • The Pac-12's top-six teams (Stanford, Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State, USC, Arizona State and Washington) average 16.5 returning starters.

So the Pac-12, generally regarded as the No. 2 AQ conference during the rise of the SEC, stacks up nicely.

Further, the Pac-12 looks like it will do far better in the 2014 NFL draft, though schools aren't eager to consider the potential early departures of players such as Oregon QB Marcus Mariota or Washington TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

While SEC commissioner Mike Slive and SEC fans surely wouldn't agree, it would be good for college football for another conference to win the national title in 2013. It would send us into the College Football Playoff not fretting that the sport was becoming a handful of minor leagues surrounding the SEC.

At least not as much.

But just imagine if the SEC wins another title and then produces another draft of 60-plus players, a decidedly better total than everyone else. Yikes.

A few years ago, there were cracks in the "SEC rules!" argument. There were grounds for debate and ready-made ripostes. Now? Not so much.

As already noted more than a few times, the Pac-12 stacks up nicely for 2013. While "now or never" sounds a bit dramatic, it's not unreasonable to fear that if it's not now, it could feel closer to never -- or at least exceedingly rare -- as we begin the College Football Playoff.
The NFL welcomed 28 new Pac-12 players via the draft over the weekend (several more via free agency), which is slightly below the Pac-12's average since 2000.

I thought it would be fun to go through the previous drafts and see how teams and the league have done over that span (Warning: our ideas of fun may differ slightly).

Since the world became Y2K compliant, the Pac-12 has had 417 players drafted -- an average of slightly less than 30 per year. The high point of that stretch came with 34 taken in 2008 while the low was 24 in 2001. Note, we're only counting the 2012 and 2013 drafts for Colorado and Utah.

Every team except Colorado (remember, Pac-12 years only) has had at least one first-round draft pick over that stretch.

Here's how the teams stack up in total draft picks since 2000:
  • Arizona has had 29 players taken -- the high coming in 2000 with five players. Four times -- including 2013 -- they have gone 0-for-draft. They have two first-round draft picks over that stretch.
  • Arizona State has had 39 players drafted -- the most coming in 2000 when they had six. 2013 was the first year during that stretch ASU hasn't had a player drafted (though we know Will Sutton would have been taken had he come out) and the first since '62 a Sun Devil hasn't been drafted. They have five first-round draft picks over that stretch.
  • California has had 52 players drafted -- the most coming in 2012 and 2008 when they had six. The low was in 2004, 2002 and 2001 when they had two in each of those years. They have 10 first-round draft picks over that stretch.
  • Colorado has had four players drafted, two this year and two last year. Worth noting that the Buffs did have two players taken in first round in 2011 -- Nate Solder and Jimmy Smith.
  • Oregon has had 47 players drafted -- the most coming in 2009 and 2002 when they had six each year. They have had at least one player drafted each year since 2000. 1985 was the last time Oregon didn't have a player taken. They have five first-round draft picks over that stretch. 2013 is the first time since 1972 the Ducks have had two first-round draft picks in the same year (Ahmad Rashad and Tom Drougas).
  • Oregon State has had 35 players drafted -- the most coming in 2009 when they had seven. The low was in 2000 when no Beavers were drafted. They have had two first-round draft picks over that stretch.
  • Stanford has had 44 players drafted -- the most coming in 2005 and 2002 when they had six each year. Twice over that span, 2009 and 2008, they had no players drafted. They have had three first-round draft picks over that stretch.
  • UCLA has had 35 players drafted -- the high coming in 2002 when they had six taken. The low was in 2012 and 2009 when there were zero Bruins drafted. They have had four first-round draft picks since 2000.
  • USC has had 84 players drafted since 2000 -- with a high of 11 players in 2009 and 2006. The low came in 2002 when two Trojans were drafted. They have 18 first-round draft picks over that stretch.
  • Utah has had three players taken in the last two drafts, two this year and one last year. Star Lotulelei was a first-round draft pick this year.
  • Washington has had 26 players taken since 2000 -- the high coming with five in 2001 and the low coming in 2009, 2008 and 2003 with zero players drafted. They have had four first-round draft picks over that stretch, including Desmond Trufant in 2013.
  • Washington State has had 19 players drafted since 2000 -- the most coming in 2005 and 2004 with three players each. The low was in 2012 and 2010 when zero Cougars were drafted. They have had one first-round draft pick -- Marcus Trufant in 2003 -- during that stretch.

A few interesting tidbits:
  • 20 percent of players drafted have come from USC.
  • The Pac-12 has had a player drafted in every round since 2000 -- except for the fifth-round in 2010 (now you can stump all of your friends with that crucial knowledge).
  • Three times USC hit double digit draftees in a single year -- while no other team has had more than six over that span.
  • Between 2006-2009, the Trojans had 37 players drafted -- more than the last 14 drafts of Arizona, Oregon State, UCLA Washington and Washington State.
  • ASU and Washington State have gone the longest without first-round draft picks. The last for both came in 2003.
  • The most popular round for Pac-12 players is the seventh. 72 players have gone in the seven-hole since 2000. The least popular is the fifth (53).
  • Twice since 2000 the No. 1 overall pick has been from the Pac-12 (Carson Palmer, 2003, Andrew Luck, 2012). Once the No. 2 overall pick was from the Pac-12 (Reggie Bush, 2006).

Here's a year-by-year of all of the first-round draft picks since 2000:
  • 2013 (5): Dion Jordan (Oregon, No. 3 overall); Star Lotulelei (Utah, No. 14); Kyle Long (Oregon, No. 20); Desmond Trufant (Washington, No. 22), Datone Jones (UCLA, No. 26).
  • 2012 (4): Andrew Luck (Stanford, No. 1); Matt Kalil (USC, No. 4); David DeCastro (Stanford, No. 24 overall); Nick Perry (USC, No. 28).
  • 2011 (3): Jake Locker (Washington, No. 8); Tyron Smith (USC, No. 9); Cameron Jordan (Cal, No. 24)
  • 2010 (2): Tyson Alualu (Cal, No. 10); Jahvid Best (Cal, No. 30)
  • 2009 (4): Mark Sanchez (USC, No. 5); Brian Cushing (USC, No. 15); Alex Mack (Cal, No. 21); Clay Matthews (USC, No. 26)
  • 2008 (6): Sedrick Ellis (USC, No. 7); Keith Rivers (USC, No. 9); Jonathan Stewart (Oregon, No. 13); Sam Baker (USC, No. 21); Antoine Cason (Arizona, No. 27); Lawrence Jackson (USC, No. 28)
  • 2007 (1): Marshawn Lynch (Cal, No. 12)
  • 2006 (4): Reggie Bush (USC, No. 2); Matt Leinart (USC, No. 10); Haloti Ngata (Oregon, No. 12); Marcedes Lewis (UCLA, No. 28)
  • 2005 (3): Mike Williams (USC, No. 10); Aaron Rodgers (Cal, No. 24); Mike Patterson (USC, No. 31)
  • 2004 (3): Reggie Williams (Washington, No. 9); Kenechi Udeze (USC, No. 20); Steven Jackson (Oregon State, No. 24)
  • 2003 (8): Carson Palmer (USC, No. 1); Terrell Suggs (Arizona State, No. 10); Marcus Trufant (Washington State, No. 11); Troy Polamalu (USC, No. 16); Kyle Boller (Cal, No. 19); Kwame Harris (Stanford, No. 26); Nick Barnett (Oregon State, No. 29); Nnamdi Asomugha (Cal, No. 31)
  • 2002 (4, also the first year with 32 picks): Joey Harrington (Oregon, No. 3); Levi Jones (Arizona State, No. 10); Jerramy Stevens (Washington, No. 28); Robert Thomas (UCLA, No. 31)
  • 2001 (4): Andre Carter (Cal, No. 7); Adam Archuleta (Arizona State, No. 20); Freddie Mitchell (UCLA, No. 25); Todd Heap (Arizona State, No. 31)
  • 2000 (4): Deltha O'Neal (Cal, No. 15); Erik Flowers (Arizona State, No. 26); R.Jay Soward (USC, No. 29); Trung Canidate (Arizona, No. 31).
Unlike last year, there is no quarterback competition at Stanford. But the recently released post-spring depth chart does reveal some potentially interesting developments to eye-ball heading into fall.

Starting on offense -- there are only two running backs listed -- Anthony Wilkerson "or" Tyler Gaffney as the starter. Both are trying to replace three-time 1,000-yard rusher Stepfan Taylor, though it's widely believed the Cardinal will take more of a committee approach than they did last year, when Taylor led the Pac-12 with 322 carries. There is plenty of depth, albeit mostly inexperienced, behind Gaffney and Wilkerson.

Also of note offensively is the addition of Kevin Danser on the depth chart at center. He's slated to start at right guard, though there is also an "or" separating Khalil Wilkes, Conor McFadden and Danser at center. It will be interesting to watch in the fall if Danser continues to get work at center. And if he wins the job, it would allow the Cardinal to insert Josh Garnett into the starting rotation at guard. That would give the Cardinal a starting front of Andrus Peat (LT), David Yankey (LG), Danser (C), Garnett (RG) and Cam Fleming (RT).

With the news of Josh Nunes' retirement yesterday, Evan Crower is locked in as the backup to Kevin Hogan and, for now, Devon Cajuste looks like he'll start opposite Ty Montgomery at receiver.

Fullback Geoff Meinken also announced he'll retire after struggling to return from a knee injury that kept him out of 2012.

At tight end -- Stanford's go-to receiving position the last couple of years -- Luke Kaumatule and Davis Dudchock are separated by an "or." However both will probably get a ton of work in Stanford's two-tight-end sets.

Defensively, there are only two "ors" on the depth chart. Henry Anderson and Josh Mauro have a good competition going at defensive and Blake Lueders and James Vaughters are undecided at the outside linebacker spot to release Chase Thomas. Though the Cardinal rotate backers and defensive linemen so frequently that "starter" is more of an honorary title.

Worth noting also that Devon Carrington, who has spent his career at safety, is also listed as a backup with Usua Amanam at right cornerback behind Wayne Lyons. Amanam is Stanford's go-to nickelback and Carrington is also backing up Ed Reynolds.

Looking at the specialists, up for grabs is the punter, which could go to either Ben Rhyne or Conrad Ukropina. Montgomery looks set at kick return while it's a four-way race between him, Kodi Whitfield, Keanu Nelson and Barry Sanders to return punts.

You can see the complete depth chart here and interpret it as you see fit.
Every game counts. But some games count more. Or tell us more.

We're going through the Pac-12 and picking out one game that seems most important -- or potentially most revealing -- for each team from our vantage point today.

And then we'll let you vote from a list of potential options.

We're going in reverse alphabetical order.

Arizona State

Most important game: Nov. 30 vs. Arizona

SportsNation

Most important 2013 game for Arizona State?

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    9%
  •  
    16%
  •  
    32%
  •  
    36%
  •  
    7%

Discuss (Total votes: 2,401)

Why it's important: This time last year, Arizona State fans were simply wondering what they were going to get with Todd Graham as their head coach and how quickly it would take for Michael Eubank to win the starting quarterback spot. There was also a consensus that no matter what happens, just beat Arizona.

They did.

But an eight-win season and a bunch of talent returning on both sides of the ball -- including quarterback Taylor Kelly and Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton -- means the Sun Devils can raise the expectation bar higher than it was last year. Their hopes for 2013 should include roses. Whether the Sun Devils are actually good enough to turn those hopes into reality depends on how they navigate a very demanding 2013 slate.

No matter how high the hopes get, however, there is and always will be one constant. Beat Arizona.

But before things get all territorial, the Sun Devils have to go through a gauntlet as tough as any team in the league.

Last year Arizona State faced seven teams that finished the year with winning records. One of those was an FCS team, meaning the Sun Devils faced six sub-.500 opponents. And they did what they were supposed to do in those games -- going 5-1 with the only loss coming on the road to Missouri. But when the schedule ramped up, they lost four in a row to Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State and USC before rebounding nicely to close the year with wins over Washington State, Arizona and Navy. The combined record of ASU's 2012 opponents was 80-82 (.493) and if you only count the FBS schools, it was 72-79 (.476).

The 2013 season promises to be tougher. Then again, so do the Sun Devils. The combined 2012 record of this year's opponents is 87-67 (.564). And if you take out FCS Sacramento State, the combined FBS teams were 81-62 (.566). It features both Rose Bowl participants in Wisconsin and Stanford and the national runner up in Notre Dame. All three of those games will be huge toward building ASU's national credibility.

But they aren't as important as Arizona.

Right now ASU and UCLA are perceived as the frontrunners in the South -- and USC isn't too far behind. Last year's showdown with the Bruins was epic -- with both teams scoring late before a game-winning UCLA field goal sealed it for the Bruins. It's a budding new rivalry and it could again determine the 2013 South champion.

But it's not as important as Arizona.

The way ASU's schedule sets up is interesting. It's frontloaded with four tough, consecutive games against Wisconsin, Stanford, USC and Notre Dame. That's as tough a stretch as any team in the country. And it closes against Oregon State, at UCLA and home to Arizona. How ASU negotiates the schedule early will go a long way toward how the rest of the country feels about them.

But, all together now, it's not as important as beating Arizona.

The home team has lost the last four meetings between the schools. Last year's score, 41-34, is considered a blowout by recent historical standards. The teams played to 31-27 in '11, 30-29 (2OT) in '10 and 20-17 in '09. The average margin of victory has been less than a field goal.

It's as fierce a rivalry as there is in the nation and in a recruiting destination-state like Arizona, bragging rights mean everything. The addition of Graham and Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez has also added a new and exciting element to the showdown. And as the old adage goes, anything can happen in a rivalry game.

Suppose ASU isn't as good as advertised and it goes 1-4 to start the season and one of the LA schools takes the South. Nothing would rectify a disappointing year like beating your rival. Suppose ASU is as good as advertised and they are in the looking at 10-11 wins heading into the Arizona game. Nothing puts a stamp on a year like heading to the postseason at your rival's expense.

So while ASU certainly has plenty of important games that carry national significance -- it's still hard to imagine anything ever trumping the Territorial Cup as most important.
With spring ball in the books, Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian took some time to chat with the Pac-12 blog about his impressions over the 15 practices, moving on without Austin Seferian-Jenkins and what it's like to actually have a healthy offensive line.

I know every coach has a laundry list of things that they want to get done in spring. But was there one particular thing you felt like you wanted to address?

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Steve Sarkisian
Elaine Thompson/AP PhotoCoach Steve Sarkisian says the Washington Huskies had a successful spring season, despite some distractions along the way.
Steve Sarkisian: There's always more than one. When you come out of a season and you assess your football team and the things you have to work on and the needs you have -- whether it's from a team standpoint, personnel, development -- there were numerous things I felt like we had to address. I feel like we addressed the majority of those things by design. Some of those we found out couldn't be addressed until some of the players we signed arrived on campus. But I felt good about having a purpose going into spring on a variety of fronts and then addressing those things of purpose and feeling good about them coming out.

Where's your confidence level with [quarterback] Keith [Price]?

SS: I felt great about Keith coming out of spring, quite honestly. Of the 15 practices we had, he might have had one that wasn't his best and another where he was just OK. But outside of that I thought he was fantastic. Bringing Marques Tuiasosopo back on board as a quarterbacks coach -- he's a guy I coached in the NFL at Oakland and he was with us here for two years when we first came on board -- bringing him back has been good and the style of coaching he has is what I'm looking for and it's consistent with myself. Keith has really responded to that. He came out and had a really good spring. He's upbeat about what we're doing offensively. I think he feels good about what we're doing up front with the offensive line and also with the wideouts and the running back situation. That genuine confidence that he has in himself, as well as his confidence in what's going on around him, is as high as it's been.

You talked about the offensive line. It seems like you guys finally have healthy depth. How nice has it been to have the same five working with the offense and then knowing you've still got Erik [Kohler] and Colin [Tanigawa] waiting in the wings?

SS: It's been huge. For myself and Dan Cozzetto, our offensive line coach, just the continuity up front of having those five guys communicate with one another, playing with one another, making decisions with one another on the fly has been big. But also for us, having depth -- and not just depth in number -- but depth in experience. You look at Colin Tanigawa. You look at Erik Kohler. Shane Brostek is a backup who has a lot of game experience as well. Really, we have eight offensive linemen who have a lot of game experience against some top-level talent who could step in and play, as well as some younger guys who are really developing. We feel really good about that position group as long as we can stay healthy.

I talked with Bishop [Sankey] a couple of weeks ago and all he wanted to talk about was how he needs to get better at everything -- very little about what he's already accomplished. What's the next step for him?

SS: Bishop is a great kid. Everyone sees what he did on the field and they see how he progressed and got better and better as the year went on and the maturity he exuded -- not only through the tough times early on -- but also in the good times late in the year for himself. The beauty of it all is you turn around and look at our GPA -- he had the highest on the team with a 3.8.

He didn't mention that when we talked.

SS: He'd be the first not to tell you that. He's such a humble kid. But it's everything he does. And it's not just on the field. It's in the classroom, it's in the community. We're seeing now more than ever the leadership he possesses, and I'm really proud of what he's been able to accomplish. I think his best days are ahead of him. There's a lot he can improve on and he's working hard at improving and we're working hard to make him better.

How much of a distraction has the situation with Austin [Seferian-Jenkins] been this spring?

SS: It really wasn't bad. Especially internally. At the end of the day, we touched on this with the team, guys are going to make mistakes. I deal with 18-to-22-year-old males and I've got 105 sons on this roster. To think that all 105 aren't going to make mistakes in a four-to-five year span isn't reality. What I do know, and what our team knows, is that Austin is a really good guy. He's done a great deal for our community. He's a good student. He just got over a 3.0 as well. He's been working hard and was having a good offseason. But he made a mistake. Is that mistake truly indicative of Austin's character? No, it's not. We all understand that. We all have to learn from the mistake he made, unfortunately. But we're moving on. We practiced 12 times without Austin. It was actually good for us. It allowed some of the other guys in his position group to develop and improve. And when the time is right for him to re-join us, he'll re-join us and we'll move on.

You guys were really two different teams when you were at home versus on the road last year. I know there is no magic-bullet answer, but what do you need to do to improve the road play?

SS: We have to continually try to expand our comfort zone. We're obviously a very good team when we're in the friendly confines -- whether it's CenturyLink Field or Husky Stadium -- I think what's key for us is no matter where we go, who we play, what time the game is, what the weather is that we go play Husky football. That's something we've talked about since the locker room of the Las Vegas Bowl, quite honestly, and we continue to talk about it every single day. That won't change.

Speaking of Husky Stadium, what are you expecting from the fans, and what's the game day experience going to be like for them?

SS: I would rival the game day experience with any other school in the country. I had a chance to go through it [last week] and I'm still blown away every time I go in there. I think the proximity to the fans and how close they'll be to the field is going to enhance the game day experience for the fans and for our players. From a crowd noise standpoint. From an energy standpoint they'll provide, it will be a great environment. To go along with the setting of Lake Washington and Montlake Boulevard, I don't know what's better out there in college football.

The defense was much better last year. What's the next step for them as a unit?

SS: I think we have to continue to be an opportunistic defense -- one that creates turnovers. We did a great job of that last year. Continue being really sticky in pass defense. You have to be in our conference with so many people throwing the football. And play really good red-zone defense. Those are three areas we drastically improved last season. To continue to build upon that; our ability to defend the up-tempo offense is going to be big for us; and our ability to disrupt quarterbacks -- whether that's sacks or knockdowns, things of that nature -- playing in the offensive backfield more than we had last season are two areas we're very focused on. We focused on that this spring and we'll continue to focus on it in the fall. Defending the up-tempo offense and then wreaking havoc in the offensive backfield.

Whose name are we going to be hearing in 2013 that we didn't hear about in 2012?

SS: I think a name to keep an eye on is a kid who redshirted for us last year and I think can be a playmaker for us in the defensive backfield and in the return game is Cleveland Wallace. He's a guy that possess a really high football IQ. He has a knack for being around the football. He really improved this spring. I think he's a guy to keep an eye on.
ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach has released the third edition of his 2013 Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 25, and there are a lot of changes.

For one, there's a new No. 1:
Ohio State, which went 12-0 in coach Urban Meyer's first season, jumps two-time defending national champion Alabama for the top spot. I'm not saying the Buckeyes are a better football team than the Crimson Tide; I'm saying Ohio State has an easier path to an undefeated record this coming season.

As for the Pac-12, there's also plenty of movement.

Oregon moves up to No. 3 from No. 5, while Stanford falls from No. 2 to No. 5.

UCLA is No. 19, and USC, unranked last time, is No. 23. Oregon State fell out of the top-25.

As for Pac-12 nonconference opponents: Notre Dame is No. 10 (Arizona State, Stanford, USC), Boise State is No. 21 (Washington), Nebraska is No. 22 (UCLA), Northwestern is No. 24 (California) and Wisconsin is No. 25 (Arizona State).

So lucky-Bear California plays No. 1, No. 3, No. 5, No. 19, No. 23 and No. 24.

Welcome to Berkeley, Sonny Dykes.
Stanford's post-spring depth chart was released Monday, and it revealed that sophomore quarterback Evan Crower is now Kevin Hogan's backup.

A big reason for that was revealed that Josh Nunes, who started the first eight games of 2012 before being beaten out by Hogan, has been forced to retire due to injuries, the school announced.

The injury that has ended Nunes' career was not announced, but it is believed to be a biceps muscle injury on his throwing arm that he suffered while lifting weights in January, according to the San Jose Mercury News.

Nunes passed for 1,643 yards with 10 TDs and seven interceptions last season. He was the starter when the Cardinal upset then-No. 2 USC 21-14 on Sept. 15, a performance that will be his career highlight. He also led the Cardinal to a comeback win over Arizona.

Dallas Lloyd is expected to be the Cardinal's No. 3 QB. Neither Crower nor Lloyd have game experience.
People who confuse brains and luck can get in a whole lot of trouble. Seeing through the game is not the same as winning the game.
When something seemingly loud happens, we can't help but stare. The momentum of attention, which of course can be monetized by the media, creates a hungry void that is filled with endless analysis. The end-result is a suffusion of broad statements of "This proves this!"

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Matt Barkley
Kirby Lee/US PresswireThe Eagles drafted USC QB Matt Barkley with the 98th pick in the fourth round of the 2013 draft.
So we have USC quarterback Matt Barkley. It seems now we all should have seen Barkley's precipitous slide in the NFL draft coming. He would have been a top-10 pick in the 2012 draft, not the 98th overall selection he ended up being on Saturday, if he'd only been smart enough not to return to USC for his senior season.

I get it. Hindsight rocks. We'd all be rich, infinitely happy people if we could do a rewind and relive the past, knowing what we know after going through it once before.

With the benefit of hindsight, it's fair to say now that Barkley made a huge mistake. How huge? This is from Sports Illustrated's Peter King:
P.S.: Wondering what that extra year of school cost Barkley? He went 98th overall. Let's say he'd have been the eighth pick a year ago -- that's where Ryan Tannehill went. It's all speculation, of course. But the consensus was he'd have been a top 10 pick. Tannehill's deal: four years, $12.7 million. The 98th pick last year, Ravens center Gino Gradkowski, signed for four years and $2.58 million. Turns out it was a $10.1 million year of school for Matt Barkley.

Ouch.

You business school guys can pencil that out for us over a lifetime. Forget Barkley's second contract. You can't make up a $10.1 million hit.

So, yeah, bad call. Barkley undoubtedly will become a cautionary tale for future players who are debating whether to stay in school or enter the draft early. More than a few folks will insist that if there's a consensus first-round grade for a third-year player, returning merely to make a run at being the first overall pick or a top-10 pick is not a good idea.

Support for that notion comes from the evaluative distance between the end of the regular season and the actual draft. So much happens between December and April that a player, particularly one with great athletic measurables, can dramatically influence the affections of NFL scouts and GMs.

Still, let's look at the Barkley who stood in front of a Christmas tree in December 2011 and smoothly announced his return to USC.
  • There was seemingly no question at that point he would be, at best, the third QB chosen behind Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Further, you'd think that some of his supposed red flags -- arm strength and foot quickness -- would have revealed themselves at the NFL combine and during workouts, so it's even questionable that he would have won out over Tannehill.
  • Go back to your December 2011 self. Who was the best college QB in the nation? There was Barkley and then a whole bunch of "Who?" and "Neh." Phil Steele's ranking of QBs after Barkley in advance of the season: 2.Tyler Wilson, Arkansas; 3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma; 4. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech; 5. Tyler Bray, Tennessee.
  • Ergo, his rating as the top overall QB entering 2012, based on three years as a starter, seemed absolutely secure.
  • Then there were the Trojans around him: 18 starters back from a team that went 10-2 and won at Oregon. That included four starters on the offensive line to protect him and the best tandem of college receivers in recent memory: Robert Woods and Marqise Lee.

There were only two potential red flags at the time: 1. Injury; 2. The unknown. Both ended up contributing to Barkley's slip.

"The unknown" includes that old scouting adage that a guy can have "too much film." If a guy duplicates his great play from a previous season, scouts will wonder why he didn't dramatically improve. And woe unto him whose numbers drop.

But the now-marginalized reasons for Barkley's return also were sound:
  • Win the Heisman Trophy.
  • Win the national title.
  • Enjoy another year of college as USC's QB, which is a nice thing to carry around the idyllic campus, before taking on real world stresses of playing a game for a living.
  • Become the first QB taken in the 2013 draft, which is typically in the higher reaches of the top-10.

At the time Barkley made his decision to stick around, there were few naysayers about his and his team's prospects. That everything went so completely rear-end-over-tea-kettle still boggles the mind if you aren't one of those people who pretends you saw it all coming a year ago.


All this said, with a few exceptions, my long-held belief on this is a player should enter the draft as soon as possible. "Stay in school!" sounds nice, but a guy can always go back to school.

That position, however, is not all about merely jumping into the draft when your stock is seemingly high. It's also about age. It's better to start earning a (substantial) paycheck at, say, 21 than 22, if it is available to you. The career clock doesn't tick very long in the NFL, and an extra couple of million can help later in life.

Consider two Pac-12 players who had less fanfare this draft cycle but are probably nearly as disappointed as Barkley: Oregon RB Kenjon Barner and Stanford OLB Chase Thomas.

Both opted to return for their senior seasons in order to improve their NFL draft prospects. It appears neither did, with Barner going in the sixth round and Thomas going undrafted. My hunch is they would have done better last spring.

Both now have an additional year of wear-and-tear on the bodies without getting paid, which is particularly an issue for Barner because running backs see their productivity drop substantially at 30. Barner just turned 24.

Ultimately, a disappointing draft doesn't make or break an NFL career. Ask Tom Brady. I think just about every conversation I had with former Seattle Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck circled back to his annoyance at being picked in the sixth round, watching QBs he felt were inferior to him get picked before him.

Barkley, who has seemingly led a charmed life at quarterback, might get a boost from having a chip on his shoulder (a Chip Kelly one, at that). Maybe "Angry Matt" will turn out better than "Breezy Matt."

The NFL draft is often confounding. It is laden with risk and reward on both sides of the process. Barkley took on a defensible risk and things didn't go as he hoped. That's notable, but it's also an annual occurrence.

As for Barkley, you'd think that at some point in his life he will encounter a greater adversity than being picked in the fourth round of the NFL draft.

Pac-12 ends spring with three games

April, 29, 2013
Apr 29
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With Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA playing spring games over the weekend, Pac-12 spring practices officially ended.

But before we begin eyeballing the offseason, here's a wrap on what happened in these three exhibitions.

Oregon

Like most Pac-12 teams, injuries took a big toll on Oregon's spring game rosters, so it wasn't a highly competitive affair. The offense dominated in a 65-10 "win" in front of 36,588 in Autzen Stadium.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota and both his backups played well. Mariota lasted four drives, scoring TDs on three of them. He completed 13 of 15 passes for 169 yards with a pair of scoring tosses to Josh Huff.

As for the competition to become Mariota's backup, Jake Rodrigues completed 13-of-19 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns, and Jeff Lockie completed 22-of-28 for 217 yards and two touchdowns. Neither threw an interception.

Running back Byron Marshall, trying to replace Kenjon Barner, had a good day, rushing for 60 yards on six carries with a 2-yard TD run starting the day's scoring. Receiver Bralon Addison had eight receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown.

The offense piled up more than 800 yards.

Defense? It was missing a number of key players, but converted tight end Christian French had nine tackles and a sack at outside linebacker, perhaps trying to follow in the path of another former Duck who converted to outside linebacker from tight end and was picked third in the NFL draft on Thursday.

Oregon State

As if to say to Oregon State fans at Reser Stadium that the Beavers' quarterback competition won't be resolved in a spring game, coach Mike Riley allowed Sean Mannion and Cody Vaz to play only one series Friday.

Mannion completed eight of 11 passes for 67 yards, but was intercepted by safety Ryan Murphy in the end zone. Vaz was 4-for-6 for 59 yards and led the offense to a touchdown, one of only two on the evening.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Brent VanderVeen received the bulk of the playing time completing 15 of 27 passes for 153 yards and a 21-yard TD to Micah Hatfield.

Running back Storm Woods didn't play. Receiver Brandin Cooks caught four passes for 38 yards.

There were three field goals and two TDs. The offense threw three interceptions, fumbled and yielded four sacks.

Several inexperienced defenders made big plays. Redshirt freshman Tyler Hasty and junior Malcolm Marable recorded interceptions, sophomore Joel Skotte forced a fumble that Hasty pounced on and sophomores Lavonte Barnett, Brandon Bennett-Jackson and Jaswha James and redshirt freshman Caleb Saulo were credited with sacks.

UCLA

Injuries turned UCLA's spring game into mostly a dressed up practice in from of a crowd of 20,000 at the Rose Bowl on Saturday evening.

Quarterback Brett Hundley played well, completing 16 of 23 passes for 179 yards with touchdowns of 25 (Paul Perkins, doing much of the work for himself on a swing pass) and 26 (Devin Fuller) yards.

There wasn't much with the running game. Jordon James led everyone with 20 yards on five carries, though he did have TD runs of 6 and 2 yards. Fuller led the receivers with six catches for 66 yards.

As for the battle for backup quarterback, Jerry Neuheisel completed 6 of 7 for 106 yards, and T.J. Millweard completed 5 of 7 for 60 yards and a 20-yard TD to Kenneth Walker.

Keenan Graham led the defense with two sacks. Stan McKay had four tackles and an interception.
The Philadelphia Eagles welcomed eight new players to the team via the 2013 NFL draft. Half of them are from the Pac-12. And new Philadelphia coach Chip Kelly -- as one or two of you might have heard -- is formerly of Oregon. Kelly insisted this wasn't the game plan going in.

Jones
Kelly
"It wasn't certainly by design," he said after the draft. "Now, when people look back at the draft and try to analyze it and try to see how it happened -- I think it kind of just happened."

Kelly and Co. drafted Stanford tight end Zach Ertz in the second round, USC quarterback Matt Barkley in the fourth round, Utah defensive end Joe Kruger in the seventh, and Oregon State defensive back Jordan Poyer in the seventh.

Kelly's Ducks beat Utah 31-24 in his first season as Oregon's head coach -- a four-year span in which he went to four-straight BCS Bowl games, won three Pac-12 titles and compiled a 46-7 record. Kruger wasn't part of that Utah team. But Kelly saw plenty of Barkley, Ertz and Poyer. Plus he saw LSU defensive tackle Bennie Logan when the Tigers topped the Ducks in the 2011 opener in Arlington, Texas.

Design or not, these are players that Kelly is extremely familiar with. And it's human nature to go with what you know. Probably not by coincidence, three of the new Eagles were on the field to hand Kelly three of his seven career losses at Oregon.

Here's a look at the new Eagles and their history against Kelly.

Zach Ertz, Stanford, TE (3rd pick of 2nd round, 35th overall)
  • 2012: 11 catches, 106 yards, one touchdown in Stanford's 17-14 win at Oregon. Ertz hauled in the controversial game-tying catch with 1:35 in the fourth quarter that sent the game to overtime.
  • 2011: Did not play because of an injury suffered two weeks earlier against USC. Oregon won 53-30 at Stanford Stadium.
  • 2010: 1 catch for three yards in Oregon's 52-31 win at Autzen Stadium.
  • Career (two games): 12 catches, 109 yards, 1 touchdown.
  • Kelly quote: "[Stanford] used him in a multiple variety. They used him as a single receiver on the trips set. He was by himself isolated on the DB. They used him as a tight end. They used him as a H-back. They used him as a move guy. They used him all over the place. You couldn't isolate him in one certain spot."
Bennie Logan, LSU, DT (5th pick of the 3rd round, 67th overall).
  • 2011: Posted four tackles, 1 solo, and a pass breakup in a 40-27 win against Oregon.
Matt Barkley, USC, QB (1st pick of the 4th round, 98th overall)
  • 2012: 35 of 54 for 484 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions in Oregon's 62-51 win in Los Angeles.
  • 2011: 26 of 24 for 323 yards, four touchdowns, one interception in USC's 38-35 win at Oregon. This ended a 21-game winning streak for Oregon at Autzen Stadium, and a 19-game conference winning streak.
  • 2010: 26 of 49 for 264 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions in Oregon's 53-32 win in Los Angeles.
  • 2009: 21 of 38 for 187 yards, two touchdowns, one interception in Oregon's 47-20 win at Oregon.
  • Career (four games): 108 of 175 (61 percent), 12 touchdowns, six interceptions.
  • Kelly quote, via the Philadelphia Inquirer: “We had Matt rated as one of the top 50 players in this draft. The fact that he was still there, we talked about all along that we were going to take value. And there was no better value than us to open up today and take Matt.”
Jordan Poyer, Oregon State, CB (12th pick of the 7th round, 218 overall)
  • 2012: Six tackles, five solo, and one pass breakup in Oregon's 48-24 win at Oregon State.
  • 2011: Six tackles, five solo, two punt returns (16 yards), one kickoff return (25 yards) in Oregon's 49-21 win at Oregon.
  • 2010: Four tackles, one solo, .5 tackles for a loss, one pass breakup in Oregon's 37-20 win at Oregon State.
  • 2009: Played, but did not record any stats in Oregon's 37-33 win at Oregon.
  • Career (four games): 16 tackles, 11 solo, two pass breakups.
  • Kelly quote: "Jordan Poyer we made a mistake on -- we didn't offer him and Oregon State ended up taking him late. We should have taken him in hindsight. We knew he was a good football player. I wasn't the head coach at the time, but we knew we made a mistake. Hopefully I rectified that mistake."

And for those of you looking for closure on the Ertz catch, you're not going to get any. But here's a great exchange between Ertz and Kelly pre-draft, via Chris McPherson of PhiladelphiaEagles.com.
When the Eagles met with Ertz prior to the draft, Kelly's first question was whether it was a catch.

"Of course it was a catch," Ertz said.

The debate didn't end there. Ertz sent Kelly a handwritten note after the meeting to thank the Eagles for taking the time to meet with him. At the end of the note, Ertz left a postscript that read, "It was a catch."

"At the end of the day, I wanted to remind him what happened when we played against him, and to make sure I got the last laugh," said Ertz.

Pac-12's NFL draft was unexpected

April, 28, 2013
Apr 28
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The 2013 NFL draft was odd for the Pac-12.

The Conference of Quarterbacks saw two of its own tumble precipitously, USC's Matt Barkley to the first pick of the fourth round, and Arizona's Matt Scott to undrafted. Meanwhile, four of its five first-round picks were defensive players. And the offensive guy was a lineman.

Oregon was the top-dog, with five picks, including two in the first round and one in the second. USC, which once held that position on a near-annual basis, ended up with an underwhelming four -- same as UCLA -- the first being receiver Robert Woods in the second round, 41st overall.

Arizona and Arizona State, 2012 bowl game winners, were both shut out, while woeful Colorado produced two draft picks.

The conference as a whole supplied 28 draft picks, a number that ranked third among FBS conferences.

The SEC led the way with an extraordinary 63 draft picks. In fact, this article here does a nice job of quantifying how stunning the SEC's dominance was in the draft, not unlike how it has dominated the BCS.

The seven-team SEC East actually had more draft picks than any other conference with 32. That, in fact, is the number of SEC draft picks in the first three rounds.

Yeah... well. Heck. I don't even know what to say about that.

The ACC was No. 2 with 31. After the Pac-12, the Big 12 offered up 22 with 10 teams as the Big Ten did with 12. The Big East had 18.

Scott, who signed a free agent deal with Jacksonville, wasn't the only player who likely was surprised to not hear his name called. Stanford outside linebacker Chase Thomas, two times a first-team All-Pac-12 performer, went undrafted and signed a free agent deal with New Orleans.

Other free agent signings of note:
Obviously, a lot more will be added. I'm sure many of you are going, "Hey, what about... "

Here's how things unfolded for the conference in the draft, round-by-round:
First Round: 3. Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon: Miami; 14. Star Lotulelei, NT, Utah: Carolina; 20. Kyle Long, OG, Oregon: Chicago; 22. Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington: Atlanta; 26. Datone Jones, DE, UCLA: Green Bay.

Second Round: 35. Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford: Philadelphia; 41. Robert Woods, WR, USC: Buffalo; 46. Kiko Alonso, LB, Oregon: Buffalo.

Third round: 71. T.J. McDonald, USC, S: St. Louis; 76. Keenan Allen, WR, California: San Diego; 79. Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State: Pittsburgh.

Fourth round: 98. Matt Barkley, QB, USC: Philadelphia; 107. Brian Schwenke, OL, California: Tennessee; 109. David Bakhtiari, OT, Colorado: Green Bay; 121. Khaled Holmes, OL, USC: Indianapolis; 125. Johnathan Franklin, RB, UCLA: Green Bay; 133. Levine Toilolo, TE, Stanford: Atlanta.

Fifth round: 140. Stepfan Taylor, RB, Stanford: Arizona; 145. Steve Williams, CB, California: San Diego; 155. Jeff Locke, P, UCLA: Minnesota.

Sixth round: 172. Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado: Oakland; 182. Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon: Carolina. 192. John Boyett, S, Oregon: Indianapolis; 196. Jeff Baca, OL, UCLA: Minnesota.

Seventh round: 212. Joe Kruger, DL, Utah: Philadelphia. 218. Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon State: Philadelphia. 236. Marquess Wilson, WR, Washington State: Chicago. 247. Marc Anthony, CB, California: Baltimore.
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