Thoughts: Do A's have Rangers' number?
May, 22, 2013
May 22
12:46
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Quick thoughts on Tuesday's excellent slate of major league action
- A's 1, Rangers 0. Yu Darvish just doesn't know how to win. This is a big victory for the A's as they take the first two of the three-game set. Yoenis Cespedes' home run, a 418-foot shot to dead center, was all Oakland needed as Dan Straily pitched seven scoreless innings. The A's are like that bug you have to step on six times before you finally kill it; they just keeping coming back and surprising you. After going 4-10 during a recent stretch, people were already starting to write Oakland off -- "last season was a fluke!" -- but now the A's have won five in a row, four by one run. Are the A's in the Rangers' heads after last season's dramatic surge to the division title? Probably not, but it's food for thought. As for Cespedes, his season line doesn't look all that impressive -- .211/.283/.461 -- but the A's are now 21-12 when he plays, and the guy does seem to deliver a lot of big hits. As well as the Rangers have played, it's worth noting they've played the easiest schedule in the major leagues so far. Some of that is a function of playing in the American League West, in which the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels have been terrible (Texas is 9-3 against those two clubs). So that might not change (the A's are 11-1 against the Astros and Angels). It's also fair to point out the Rangers swept the Boston Red Sox, won three of four against the Detroit Tigers this past weekend and took two of three earlier from the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Big hit of the day: Travis Snider's pinch-hit grand slam for the Pirates as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Cubs. Matt Garza looked good for the Cubs in his season debut but departed after five innings, and the awful Cubs bullpen was awful.
- Or maybe Nate McLouth's home run was the big hit of the day, as the Baltimore Orioles snapped a six-game losing streak. McLouth's homer came off lefty Vidal Nuno leading off the 10th; kind of interesting that Buck Showalter didn't hit for McLouth, who is platooned against lefties. Other exciting Orioles news: Kevin Gausman, the fourth pick in the 2012 draft, who has been throwing upper-90s heat in Double-A, will start Thursday. Here's video of Gausman getting his 10th strikeout the other night.
- Or maybe Evan Gattis had the big hit -- a pinch-hit game-tying homer in the ninth with two outs, with the Braves winning in the 10th. Like his last homer: love Freddie Freeman's reaction in the dugout. He can't believe it, either.
- Raise your hand if you had Jose Quintana taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Red Sox. Put your hand down.
Max Scherzer is better than you think
May, 21, 2013
May 21
11:54
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Some view this short, two-game series between the Indians and Tigers as an opportunity for the Indians to make a statement, now that they've passed the Tigers for first place in the AL Central. No matter that Cleveland took two of three just more than a week ago in Detroit; the Tigers are still the team to beat in the Central, so every series against them is a chance for a division rival to make a statement.
Well, a statement was made on Tuesday night, but it was Max Scherzer making it -- and doing it with an exclamation point. The Tigers right-hander pitched eight brilliant innings against the hottest team in baseball, giving up a run in the first inning but getting stronger as the game progressed, retiring the final 22 batters he faced. The Tigers won 5-1 -- Miguel Cabrera did more Miguel Cabrera type of stuff, hitting the go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth -- as Scherzer improved to 6-0 and lowered his ERA to 3.61.
Scherzer is one of my favorite pitchers to watch. He wears that 1930s-style hat, kind of all scrunched up like it's been tucked into his back pocket all day. He starts his delivery with his glove in front of his face and winds up with his hands going over his head, delivering the ball from a three-quarters arm slot. He gets all kinds of movement on his two-seam fastball, throws a wicked slider and can crank his four-seamer into the upper 90s, like he did in twice striking out Jason Giambi on 97 mph heaters.
His final pitch in the eighth, his 118th of the game, was a 98 mph fastball that Drew Stubbs swung through. It was his fastest pitch of the night. There's the exclamation point. It was one of those games in which you ask: Why doesn't Scherzer do this more often? Why isn't he the 1A to Justin Verlander's 1?
Maybe that's an unfair expectation to hold for a pitcher who is already very good -- he went 16-7 with a 3.74 ERA last year while ranking second to Verlander in the AL in strikeouts and first in strikeouts per nine innings. It was that kind of dominance, combined with a strong second half, that had me picking Scherzer as my sleeper Cy Young pick.
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AP Photo/Tony DejakDetroit's Max Scherzer pitched eight shutout innings against the Indians to improve to 6-0.
AP Photo/Tony DejakDetroit's Max Scherzer pitched eight shutout innings against the Indians to improve to 6-0.That's been a running theme of Scherzer's career -- his ERA never matches his peripherals:
2011: 4.43 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 3.70 xFIP
2012: 3.74 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.23 xFIP
2013: 3.98 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 2.55 xFIP
If you're not familiar with FIP or xFIP, those are advanced metrics that estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be given a normalized batting average on balls in play and home run-to-fly ball rates. Scherzer's BABIPs have been high -- .314 and .333 the past two seasons -- but is now down to .275 this season after Tuesday's two-hit effort. That suggests some bad luck, but it's not always so simple to say he's pitched in bad luck.
For example, while Scherzer has allowed five home runs this year, he's allowed 15 doubles and two triples. He's allowed a .201 opponents average -- 11th among starters -- but he's 32nd in slugging percentage allowed, so he does give up some extra-base hits. He has been a little prone to the big inning as well:
- April 6: Yankees get three in the sixth (two walks and a single, bullpen allows two guys to score).
- April 24: Royals get four in the third (five straight hits).
- May 15: Astros get four in the fourth (J.D. Martinez hits three-run homer).
Now, that could be a product of bad luck, random sequencing or Scherzer losing a bit of his stuff with runners on base. Checking some numbers:
2013: .238 wOBA with bases empty, .312 with runners on
2012: .317 wOBA with bases empty, .307 with runners on
2011: .362 wOBA with bases empty, .336 with runners on
So he hasn't pitched as well with runners on this year, but he doesn't have a track record suggesting there's a problem there.
Add it up, and I draw the conclusion that the big innings have more or less a random set of results this year, and his ERA will begin to slide closer to his peripheral numbers.
In other words, watch out American League, because I think we're going to see more performances from Scherzer like the one we saw Tuesday night in Cleveland.
Chat follow: Glory days for young starters
May, 21, 2013
May 21
10:15
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
From Tuesday's chat:
Excellent question, Jacob. My response in the chat was, "I would guess yes, certainly back in the '60s and early '70s" and I said I'd do a quick follow-up post later on. So he's the follow-up post.
The question is pertinent since this era's crop of young pitchers presents a list of candidates who could do it this year: Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez (yes, still just 27), Matt Harvey, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Shelby Miller, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Moore and Chris Sale being the best bets.
Of course, we had a long period when few pitchers of any age recorded an ERA under 2.50. From 1993 through 2008, only four pitchers under the age of 28 finished with an ERA under 2.50 -- Pedro Martinez twice, Greg Maddux, Mark Prior and Jake Peavy. All told, however, there were just 27 such seasons, with Martinez, Maddux and Randy Johnson responsible for 15 of the 27 seasons.
Anyway, we came close to answer Jacob's question in 2009 when Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but that's only three. We have to go back to 1972 to get four -- and that year we had nine. Here are the five previous times it was done:
1972
Steve Carlton, Catfish Hunter, Steve Kline, Jon Matlack, Gary Nolan, Blue Moon Odom, Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton
1969
Steve Carlton, Larry Dierker, Jerry Koosman, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Bill Singer
1968
Stan Bahnsen, Steve Blass, Jerry Koosman, Sam McDowell, Denny McLain, Dave McNally, Blue Moon Odom, Tom Seaver, Mel Stottlemyre, Luis Tiant
1964
Dean Chance, Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, Gary Peters, Dick Radatz, Chris Short
1963
Dick Ellsworth, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, Ron Perranoski, Gary Peters, Juan Pizarro, Dick Radatz
Anyway, the strike zone had been redefined beginning in 1963, setting in motion a 10-year period when the pitchers -- in particular young guys who threw hard -- dominated. We're in another era when the pitchers are dominating. Fifteen wins and a sub-2.50 ERA is still a tough standard, especially since starters don't get as many decisions as they did in the '60s, but it wouldn't surprise me to see four guys do it this year.
Jacob (Poland): Was there ever a season in which four pitchers under 28 had 15 wins and sub-2.50 ERA?
Excellent question, Jacob. My response in the chat was, "I would guess yes, certainly back in the '60s and early '70s" and I said I'd do a quick follow-up post later on. So he's the follow-up post.
The question is pertinent since this era's crop of young pitchers presents a list of candidates who could do it this year: Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez (yes, still just 27), Matt Harvey, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Shelby Miller, Madison Bumgarner, Matt Moore and Chris Sale being the best bets.
Of course, we had a long period when few pitchers of any age recorded an ERA under 2.50. From 1993 through 2008, only four pitchers under the age of 28 finished with an ERA under 2.50 -- Pedro Martinez twice, Greg Maddux, Mark Prior and Jake Peavy. All told, however, there were just 27 such seasons, with Martinez, Maddux and Randy Johnson responsible for 15 of the 27 seasons.
Anyway, we came close to answer Jacob's question in 2009 when Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke, but that's only three. We have to go back to 1972 to get four -- and that year we had nine. Here are the five previous times it was done:
1972
Steve Carlton, Catfish Hunter, Steve Kline, Jon Matlack, Gary Nolan, Blue Moon Odom, Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton
1969
Steve Carlton, Larry Dierker, Jerry Koosman, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Bill Singer
1968
Stan Bahnsen, Steve Blass, Jerry Koosman, Sam McDowell, Denny McLain, Dave McNally, Blue Moon Odom, Tom Seaver, Mel Stottlemyre, Luis Tiant
1964
Dean Chance, Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, Gary Peters, Dick Radatz, Chris Short
1963
Dick Ellsworth, Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, Ron Perranoski, Gary Peters, Juan Pizarro, Dick Radatz
Anyway, the strike zone had been redefined beginning in 1963, setting in motion a 10-year period when the pitchers -- in particular young guys who threw hard -- dominated. We're in another era when the pitchers are dominating. Fifteen wins and a sub-2.50 ERA is still a tough standard, especially since starters don't get as many decisions as they did in the '60s, but it wouldn't surprise me to see four guys do it this year.
Have Reds benefited from easy schedule?
May, 21, 2013
May 21
8:25
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
This came up a couple times from readers in my chat session Tuesday, suggesting that the Cincinnati Reds may not be as strong as their 27-18 record because they've had an easy schedule so far, in particular compared to the Cardinals and Braves.
Indeed, if you go to our RPI rankings, you can see strength of schedule. Here are average winning percentages of opponents played:
Cardinals: .515 (sixth)
Braves: .504 (11th)
Reds: .484 (24th)
So the Reds have played an easier schedule. But what's the difference between a .515 winning percentage and .484? Over 162 games, we're talking about an 83-win team on average versus a 78-win team, so while the Reds have played an easier slate than the Cardinals -- Cincinnati has played the Marlins seven times, for example, while St. Louis is yet to play them -- I don't see it as a huge benefit. An advantage? Yes.
You can twist it the other way and point out that the Reds have played the Nationals seven times and the Cardinals three, or the Cardinals have played the Brewers 10 times while the Reds have played them just three.
Plus, as Reds fans in the chat were quick to point out, the Reds have played most of the season without ace Johnny Cueto (who returned Monday night), without a left fielder and with Dusty Baker screwing up the No. 2 slot in the batting order.
Of course, one of those three things is self-imposed.
Indeed, if you go to our RPI rankings, you can see strength of schedule. Here are average winning percentages of opponents played:
Cardinals: .515 (sixth)
Braves: .504 (11th)
Reds: .484 (24th)
So the Reds have played an easier schedule. But what's the difference between a .515 winning percentage and .484? Over 162 games, we're talking about an 83-win team on average versus a 78-win team, so while the Reds have played an easier slate than the Cardinals -- Cincinnati has played the Marlins seven times, for example, while St. Louis is yet to play them -- I don't see it as a huge benefit. An advantage? Yes.
You can twist it the other way and point out that the Reds have played the Nationals seven times and the Cardinals three, or the Cardinals have played the Brewers 10 times while the Reds have played them just three.
Plus, as Reds fans in the chat were quick to point out, the Reds have played most of the season without ace Johnny Cueto (who returned Monday night), without a left fielder and with Dusty Baker screwing up the No. 2 slot in the batting order.
Of course, one of those three things is self-imposed.
Chat wrap: Cubs, Rivera, surprises, more!
May, 21, 2013
May 21
4:05
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
One reader called it "epic." I don't know about that, but it was a two-and-a-half hour marathon chat session
Mariners pair top 1-2 pitching duo in majors
May, 21, 2013
May 21
12:20
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Major league baseball is so deep in quality starting pitching that you could probably make the case for nine or 10 different combinations as the best pair going right now. Here are my top five:
1. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners
This may surprise you, but Hernandez and Iwakuma have the highest WAR (wins above replacement) of any pair of pitchers in the majors. And before we write off Iwakuma's outstanding start to the season as a fluke, here are the American League ERA leaders going back to last July 1, when Iwakuma joined the Mariners' rotation:
Iwakuma: 2.54
Hernandez: 2.69
Justin Verlander: 2.77
James Shields: 2.86
Hiroki Kuroda: 2.97
So the M's have Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in baseball, a guy who has pitched 230-plus innings the past four seasons and who has been as effective as any starter in the game for nearly a year. And they have Iwakuma, who will give up some home runs, but he's walked only 11 batters in 10 starts and his splitter has turned into a wipeout pitch -- batters are hitting .184 off it with one home run, 35 strikeouts and two walks in 79 plate appearances ending with the pitch. If the Mariners fall out of the wild-card race, maybe they'll look to trade Iwakuma while his stock is high, but I fear that would be a mistake and they would be making a Doug Fister-like trade that backfires. Iwakuma is for real.
2. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, Tigers
The Tigers' rotation is so good that you could also slot Fister or Max Scherzer here and have an equally terrific duo. I still like Scherzer as the club's No. 2 as the season progresses, but Sanchez has been terrific so far and has ramped up his strikeout rate to new highs, up more than 9 percent from last season (68 in 55.1 innings). His ERA is 2.77, and while his home run rate is probably unsustainable (just two allowed), his BABIP is too high on the other end at .356. Moving forward, those two results should cancel each other out as they normalize and Sanchez should remain outstanding.
3. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Dodgers
Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game right now -- he's gone 22 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or fewer, the longest such streak since Pedro Martinez had 23 in 1999-2000 -- and Greinke would be the ace of many teams. Now that Greinke is back from his broken collarbone, we'll see if everyone has written off the Dodgers too quickly.
4. CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
Somehow, Kuroda still flies under the radar despite playing in New York. He's not flashy, but batters are hitting .201 AVG/.254 OBP/.292 SLG against him. There's some luck going on here since his .229 BABIP will probably rise, but his slider has been untouchable: opponents are 8-for-61 (.131) against it without an extra-base hit. Meanwhile, Sabathia has lost some velocity off his fastball, but he pitches down in the zone more, throws strikes and keeps the Yankees in games. Since his pitch counts have run high at times he's averaging only 6.5 innings per start, so maybe his days as a 230-inning workhorse are over (he missed a few starts last year, remember, and pitched just 200 innings). Remember as well that these guys have to pitch half their games at Yankee Stadium, where routine fly balls can land in the right-field stands.
5. Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Yes, young guns Shelby Miller and Matt Harvey have seemingly pushed Strasburg out of the limelight, but he's still pretty good and still throws hard (best average fastball velocity among starting pitchers). Nonetheless, he's been surpassed by Zimmermann as the club's ace. Zimmerman doesn't rack up the huge strikeout totals so the advanced metrics like FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA will rise (well, it will, since it's at 1.62 right now). But he throws strikes with Maddux-like precision (nine walks in nine starts) and while there were concerns heading into the season about his ability to go deep into games, his efficiency has allowed him to toss three complete games without throwing more than 107 pitches. He's 7-2 and could be 9-0 -- in the two games he lost, he allowed two runs.
That's my top five, and I couldn't find room for Adam Wainwright and Miller, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, Matt Moore and David Price, Matt Harvey and anybody. It's a pitcher's game right now, that's for sure.
Don't blame Mattingly: Blame the Dodgers
May, 21, 2013
May 21
12:50
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Maybe Don Mattingly is a good manager. Maybe he's a bad manager. Maybe, like his mentor Joe Torre, he's just four jobs away from the job that will turn him into a Hall of Famer. (The headline in the New York Daily News when the Yankees hired Torre: "CLUELESS JOE.")
Right now, Mattingly is taking his share of the blame for the Los Angeles Dodgers' 18-25 start, but blame is spread around to every corner of the clubhouse when you have a veteran roster of famous names, the highest payroll in baseball and playoff expectations and a lousy record. I suspect, however, the Dodgers would be something close to 18-25 regardless who was managing. "It ain't like football. You can't make up no trick plays," Yogi Berra once said.
After getting a vote of confidence from the front office -- Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said Mattingly is "doing fine" -- Mattingly looked like a genius on Monday. But any manager can look like a genius when he hands the ball to Clayton Kershaw. The current Best Pitcher on Planet Earth tossed a three-hit complete game in a 3-1 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers. While Kershaw was his usual dominant self in lowering his ERA to 1.35, we saw the two people who can ultimately save Mattingly's job (well, besides, Colletti and team president Stan Kasten): Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.
The two guys in the middle of the lineup, who make nearly $34 million between them this year, both homered, but it was only Kemp's second and Ethier's fourth of the season. The Dodgers rank 29th in the majors in runs scored, and while you can blame Hanley Ramirez's injury, or the poor production from Luis Cruz, a large portion of that blame falls on Kemp and Ethier. Heck, Kershaw has one home run. Nick Punto has a home run. Kemp is now tied with those two guys. He's hitting .267/.315/.358 with 16 RBIs, and maybe the offseason shoulder surgery has affected him or maybe we're just waiting for a patented Kemp hot streak to kick in.
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Benny Sieu/USA TODAY SportsAt 18-25, Don Mattingly's Dodgers are in last place in the NL West.
Benny Sieu/USA TODAY SportsAt 18-25, Don Mattingly's Dodgers are in last place in the NL West.But even when hitting .284 with 20 home runs like he did last year, Either is more solid contributor than star. In fact, it's the money being paid to Kemp and Ethier that sums up some of the Dodgers' current and long-term problems. This may be their team not just for 2013, but for the foreseeable future. Consider their primary payroll obligations right now:
Kemp: $149.5 million through 2019 (34 years old)
Ethier: $85 million through 2017 (35 years old, could vest for 2018)
Carl Crawford: $106.7 million through 2017 (35 years old)
Adrian Gonzalez: $132.1 million through 2018 (36 years old)
Zack Greinke: $147 million through 2018 (34 years old)
That doesn't include Josh Beckett and Ramirez (signed through 2014) or some of the throwaway contracts, such as those of Chad Billingsley (signed through 2014 but out until sometime next year following Tommy John surgery), Juan Uribe and Brandon League. And it doesn't include whatever it will cost to retain Kershaw's services past 2014. Can you say $30 million per year?
If we assume Kershaw makes $20 million next year and then signs a long-term deal for $30 million per season, those five players plus Kershaw will be making an average of about $134 million per season through 2017. The problem isn't so much whether or not the Dodgers can afford that -- by all accounts the ownership group has bottomless pockets and doesn't care much about exceeding luxury tax thresholds (at least for now) -- but what are the Dodgers affording?
That core doesn't look like a core that's going to win in 2013, let alone five seasons from now. That group is akin to the Phillies signing guys such as Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley into their early and mid-30s, then watching them age and the team decline from World Series champs to contenders to mediocrity. Except at least the Phillies won something and dominated for years. What has this group done besides put Mattingly's head in the guillotine?
To be fair, the season is far from over and writing off the Dodgers now could be fateful words. Kemp may heat up, Greinke is back in the rotation, Ramirez will return from the disabled list, the bullpen may stop blowing late leads and Kershaw may win every start the rest of the season.
Still, I suspect Mattingly may not make it through the end of May. That would be the easy way out for Colletti and Kasten. But, hey, who knows, maybe they know a manager out there who has some good trick plays.
This is one of those stretches that makes you happy to be a baseball fan. Or a baseball fan in Cleveland, at least. If you're a baseball fan in Seattle you may be starting to look ahead to football season.
The Indians just completed a four-game sweep of the Mariners, with three wins coming in walk-off fashion, two of those in extra innings, and the fourth win a 6-0 shutout over Felix Hernandez.
Monday's win featured a game-tying rally in the bottom of the ninth, and then after Justin Smoak homered in the 10th for Seattle, a walk-off, three-run homer from Yan Gomes, his second of the game. The tying run scored in the ninth when Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen dropped a throw at first base with two outs. In the 10th, the Indians were playing for a tie when Drew Stubbs sacrificed with nobody out, but Smoak's throwing error put two on with nobody out. Gomes followed with his blast to left off a 3-2 fastball from Charlie Furbush.
But it wasn't just Seattle's errors that created this latest bit of magic for Cleveland, now 18-4 since April 28 and 27-18 overall. The rally in the ninth included an infield single by Jason Kipnis on a 3-1 pitch that Robert Andino fielded and short-hopped Smoak, who should have made the scoop, and then a Nick Swisher blooper to right, just out of the reach of Andino. Home-plate ump Laz Diaz, who was terrible all game, had also missed a 2-1 pitch to Kipnis, which changed the structure of that at-bat. Michael Brantley began the 10th with another blooper to right just beyond Andino.
Hit 'em where they ain't.
So, good luck, good fortune and timely hitting. A pretty good combo.
Of course, the Indians have been here before. They were 33-20 on June 1 in 2011, five games up, and were still in first place as late as July 18. Last year's club was 26-18 in May and held first place on June 23 before collapsing to a 24-53 record in the second half.
But I think this is a better team, with a deeper lineup and, so far, better starting pitching. It's still early, but things are looking bright in Cleveland.
The Indians just completed a four-game sweep of the Mariners, with three wins coming in walk-off fashion, two of those in extra innings, and the fourth win a 6-0 shutout over Felix Hernandez.
Monday's win featured a game-tying rally in the bottom of the ninth, and then after Justin Smoak homered in the 10th for Seattle, a walk-off, three-run homer from Yan Gomes, his second of the game. The tying run scored in the ninth when Mariners closer Tom Wilhelmsen dropped a throw at first base with two outs. In the 10th, the Indians were playing for a tie when Drew Stubbs sacrificed with nobody out, but Smoak's throwing error put two on with nobody out. Gomes followed with his blast to left off a 3-2 fastball from Charlie Furbush.
But it wasn't just Seattle's errors that created this latest bit of magic for Cleveland, now 18-4 since April 28 and 27-18 overall. The rally in the ninth included an infield single by Jason Kipnis on a 3-1 pitch that Robert Andino fielded and short-hopped Smoak, who should have made the scoop, and then a Nick Swisher blooper to right, just out of the reach of Andino. Home-plate ump Laz Diaz, who was terrible all game, had also missed a 2-1 pitch to Kipnis, which changed the structure of that at-bat. Michael Brantley began the 10th with another blooper to right just beyond Andino.
Hit 'em where they ain't.
So, good luck, good fortune and timely hitting. A pretty good combo.
Of course, the Indians have been here before. They were 33-20 on June 1 in 2011, five games up, and were still in first place as late as July 18. Last year's club was 26-18 in May and held first place on June 23 before collapsing to a 24-53 record in the second half.
But I think this is a better team, with a deeper lineup and, so far, better starting pitching. It's still early, but things are looking bright in Cleveland.
I don't know where this post is going, but wherever it leads, it's not meant to rip on Brandon Phillips, if it does wind up sounding negative. Reds fans jumped on me a few weeks ago when I called Phillips overrated, and that's fine: Fans should defend their players, especially the good ones, and Phillips is an excellent player and has been since 2007. Just because I called him overrated doesn't mean I don't like Phillips as a player: I do.
Phillips Anyway, right now Phillips is second in the National League to Troy Tulowitzki with 36 RBIs. He's having a great season, right? RBIs are king! He sort of said as much to Eric Karabell in this post:
With seven home runs, Phillips is on pace for a few more home runs than last year, but his batting line remains relatively unchanged from 2011 and 2012, when he drove in 82 and 77 runs -- years when he did spend a lot of time batting cleanup (55 starts in 2011, 73 last year), but not regularly like he's done this year. His triple-slash lines:
2011: .300/.353/.457
2012: .281/.321/.429
2013: .281/.323/.468
Now, one reason Phillips has driven in 37 runs is he has Shin-Soo Choo hitting leadoff and Joey Votto hitting third in front of him, and they are first (Votto) and third (Choo) in the majors in on-base percentage. The Reds have received poor production from the No. 2 spot in the lineup -- their collective .265 OBP is 28th in the majors -- but Phillips has still hit with the second-most runners on base of any player in the majors. Here are the top five, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Prince Fielder, Tigers: 150
Brandon Phillips, Reds: 149
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 148
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 147
Justin Morneau, Twins: 146
To drive in a lot of runs you need runners on base. Now, Phillips has hit exceptionally well when runners are on and deserves credit there -- .318 with men on and .432 with runners in scoring position. His RBI total is still somewhat a reflection of how often Choo and Votto have been on base, however: His percentage of "others driven in" (percentage of runners on base driven in) is 20.1 percent; among players with 75 plate appearances that ranks 29th (Ryan Zimmerman is first at 26.8 percent).
What's interesting is that it appears Phillips changes his approach a bit with runners in scoring position. He's hit just one run home run in 58 plate appearances, as he seems to focus more on getting the ball in play and getting base hits. With the bases empty he's hit five home runs in 87 plate appearances, but is hitting just .244. Here, the stat lines:
RISP: .432/.474/.591, 7 BB, 8 SO
Empty: .244/.253/.465, 1 BB, 15 SO
He strikes out slightly less (14 percent versus 17 percent) but the walk rate is much better (one of those seven was intentional) with runners on. Phillips says he's a free swinger; well, that's kind of true. With the bases empty, his chase percentage on pitches outside the strike zone is 41 percent; but with RISP it's just 27 percent. Phillips has been better with RISP because he limits his free-swinging habits.
This could just be small sample size results going on here. In 2011-12, for example, his chase percentage with RISP was 34 percent and with the bases empty 37 percent. But if he does manage to maintain this approach, and keep his free-swinging ways to a minimum, he'll continue to drive in a lot of runs.
Now, if only Dusty Baker could find a decent No. 2 hitter imagine how many runs Phillips may knock in.
"My job now is to get RBI, it's my No. 1 thing," said Phillips, who is getting so many of them that he's one off the NL lead, and remains on pace for 133 of them. "That's my goal, to get 100. When I hit fourth that's my job. I don't really worry about my batting average or my on-base percentage, it's just getting the guy in [to score]. Having that approach has been working so far. I'm a free swinger. I like hitting fourth. It's fun. Your job is to do one job."
With seven home runs, Phillips is on pace for a few more home runs than last year, but his batting line remains relatively unchanged from 2011 and 2012, when he drove in 82 and 77 runs -- years when he did spend a lot of time batting cleanup (55 starts in 2011, 73 last year), but not regularly like he's done this year. His triple-slash lines:
2011: .300/.353/.457
2012: .281/.321/.429
2013: .281/.323/.468
Now, one reason Phillips has driven in 37 runs is he has Shin-Soo Choo hitting leadoff and Joey Votto hitting third in front of him, and they are first (Votto) and third (Choo) in the majors in on-base percentage. The Reds have received poor production from the No. 2 spot in the lineup -- their collective .265 OBP is 28th in the majors -- but Phillips has still hit with the second-most runners on base of any player in the majors. Here are the top five, according to Baseball Prospectus:
Prince Fielder, Tigers: 150
Brandon Phillips, Reds: 149
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: 148
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: 147
Justin Morneau, Twins: 146
To drive in a lot of runs you need runners on base. Now, Phillips has hit exceptionally well when runners are on and deserves credit there -- .318 with men on and .432 with runners in scoring position. His RBI total is still somewhat a reflection of how often Choo and Votto have been on base, however: His percentage of "others driven in" (percentage of runners on base driven in) is 20.1 percent; among players with 75 plate appearances that ranks 29th (Ryan Zimmerman is first at 26.8 percent).
What's interesting is that it appears Phillips changes his approach a bit with runners in scoring position. He's hit just one run home run in 58 plate appearances, as he seems to focus more on getting the ball in play and getting base hits. With the bases empty he's hit five home runs in 87 plate appearances, but is hitting just .244. Here, the stat lines:
RISP: .432/.474/.591, 7 BB, 8 SO
Empty: .244/.253/.465, 1 BB, 15 SO
He strikes out slightly less (14 percent versus 17 percent) but the walk rate is much better (one of those seven was intentional) with runners on. Phillips says he's a free swinger; well, that's kind of true. With the bases empty, his chase percentage on pitches outside the strike zone is 41 percent; but with RISP it's just 27 percent. Phillips has been better with RISP because he limits his free-swinging habits.
This could just be small sample size results going on here. In 2011-12, for example, his chase percentage with RISP was 34 percent and with the bases empty 37 percent. But if he does manage to maintain this approach, and keep his free-swinging ways to a minimum, he'll continue to drive in a lot of runs.
Now, if only Dusty Baker could find a decent No. 2 hitter imagine how many runs Phillips may knock in.
Miggy unstoppable, but what about Tigers?
May, 20, 2013
May 20
1:30
AM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
Well, Miguel Cabrera was due.
I mean, he'd gone a whole four games without a home run. He'd driven in just two runs in his previous eight games. He was probably taking extra batting practice before Sunday's game. The bum.
Cabrera was a one-man wrecking crew on Sunday for the Detroit Tigers, however, going 4-for-4 with three home runs, a walk, four runs and five RBIs. Unfortunately, the Texas Rangers had more than one man and won 11-8 to capture the first showdown of the season between the two teams many consider the best in the American League by winning three of four games, including a battering of Justin Verlander on Thursday.
More on that in a moment. First, let us appreciate the greatness of Cabrera. The scary thing about his hot start -- he's hitting .387 with 11 home runs and 47 RBIs, leading the AL in batting and RBIs while ranking one behind the league leaders in home runs -- is that last season he heated up after May. He hit nine home runs and 42 RBIs through the end of May, still a pretty good two months for most players, but then hit .336 with 35 home runs from June 1 onward. What if he hasn't even heated up yet? I mean, the dude is on pace for 181 RBIs, putting him within spitting distance of Hack Wilson's record of 191. He's making it seem possible that he could win another Triple Crown.
Yes, it's mid-May, but Cabrera is so good it doesn't sound ridiculous mentioning stuff like this.
How do you get him out right now? He's hitting .405 against fastballs. He's hitting .375 against inside pitches. He's hitting .314 on pitches outside the strike zone (with a bunch of walks, as well, since that's where walks come from). Get two strikes on him and he's still hitting .299, compared to the major league average of .194.
Unstoppable right now. Unstoppable.
But the Rangers stole his thunder, lashing out 18 hits in the win. Not a bad four games for Texas, which knocked out Verlander in the third inning on Thursday, Anibal Sanchez in the third inning on Saturday and Doug Fister in the fifth on Sunday.
Which sort of leaves me wondering: What exactly do we have with these Tigers? The AL Central looks much tougher than last season, when the Tigers sort of limped to the division title despite Cabrera's Triple Crown and huge seasons from Verlander, Prince Fielder and Austin Jackson. We're sort of seeing the same thing right now. Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, Fielder is doing Fielder kinds of things, Torii Hunter, Jhonny Peralta and Omar Infante are all hitting more than .300, and the rotation has generally been excellent before this series.
But for some reason, it hasn't all added up, and the Tigers are just 23-19, now two games behind the Indians. They're under .500 against teams not named "Astros" (17-18). Their run differential is plus-47, second in the AL behind the Rangers' plus-54 but just plus-11 against teams not named "Houston." And the Tigers don't get to play the Astros any more.
And, no, you can't blame the bullpen (although it did get the loss on Sunday). The bullpen ERA is 3.91, 21st in the majors, but still better than the Red Sox, Rays or Cardinals. Their OPS allowed is actually fifth-best in the majors. The relievers' record is 3-8, which is tied for the fewest wins in the majors, but that speaks as well to the offense's inability to score late and Detroit's 2-4 record in extra innings.
There are no questions about Cabrera, but this series certainly left us with some questions about his teammates.
A quick warning about Jurickson Profar's call to the majors to replace the disabled Ian Kinsler: Do not expect Mike Trout; do not expect Bryce Harper; do not expect Manny Machado.
Yes, the performance of those three wunderkinds has, unfortunately, raised the expectations for all prospects, especially one deemed the best in the game entering this season.
In time, maybe Profar joins them as generational talents (I can see the corny nickname already: "The Four Tops"), but it would be unfair to believe Profar will hit like they have, at least right off the bat. Remember, he's only 20, and, while he held his own in Triple-A, hitting .278/.370/.438 with four home runs, HE'S ONLY 20 YEARS OLD. Most 20 year olds are still learning how to hit curveballs in the South Atlantic League.
That said, I'm excited to see the kid play for a couple weeks. While Profar didn't start Sunday and Ron Washington said he'll split time with Leury Garcia, I'm not sure the Rangers recalled Profar to play three games a week. Profar has a good approach at the plate, particularly for a kid so young, drawing 21 walks in 37 games at Round Rock, so that's a good sign that he'll come up to the majors and not get in trouble by being overly aggressive. And, as Washington likes to say, "He's not afraid of the game."
Kinsler had been one of the best players in the league so far, hitting .302 with seven home runs, 20 RBIs and 24 runs, so the Rangers will miss his production from the leadoff spot. But they have a comfortable lead in the AL West and there was no reason to push him through the injury.
Profar is likely headed back to Triple-A once Kinsler's DL stint ends. Of course, who knows, maybe Profar hits so well he leaves the Rangers no choice but to find a regular spot for him. I don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't be that eager to bet against him, either.
REST OF THE WEEKEND
Three stars
1. Matt Joyce, Tampa Bay Rays. Down 4-0 after one inning to the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, Joyce hit a two-run homer in the third to get the Rays closer and then hit a two-run, go-ahead double in the ninth. On Sunday, Joyce's homer provided the insurance run in a 3-1 win as the Rays swept the O's.
2. Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies. The Rockies had many heroes in winning three of four against the San Francisco Giants at home, but Fowler jumpstarted the offense all weekend with 10 hits and seven runs scored. Not a bad four days: He raised his average from .252 to .286.
3. Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians. Masterson tossed his second consecutive scoreless start, striking out a season-high 11 in seven innings against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday in a 6-0 victory. Masterson improved to 7-2 while lowering his ERA to 2.83. This is a different Masterson than we've seen the past couple seasons, with a much higher strikeout rate (25 percent versus 18 percent last season) but still keeping the home runs to a minimum (just three). While he's struggled in the past against left-handers, he's held them to a .226 average this season with a 36/19 K/BB ratio compared to 72/56 in 2012. And it's not all batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which is a fairly normal .285 so far. If he keeps getting lefties out, he's going to keep winning games.
Honorable mention star of the weekend
Have to mention Joey Votto for getting on base all six times in Saturday's win for the Cincinnati Reds -- he went 4-for-4 with two walks, a double and a home run. Only two players had a "6-for-6" day last season -- Aaron Hill of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both went 5-for-5 with a walk and, like Votto, doubled and homered.
One more honorable mention star of the weekend
The Diamondbacks beat the Miami Marlins on Saturday as Brandon McCarthy pitched the three-hit shutout (no save!), but he had a lot of help from Gerardo Parra, who led off the game with this on the first pitch and then did this in the bottom of the first. Parra has one of the better arms in the majors, but his bat is a big reason the D-backs are in first place, as he's hitting .320/.385/.494 with 28 runs (11th in the NL). That batting line, combined with his outstanding defense, has Parra leading the NL in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), tied with Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw, at 3.1. Justin who?
Clutch performance of the weekend
Atlanta Braves rookie Evan Gattis keeps finding a way to get himself into the highlights. On Saturday, he pinch hit in the eighth inning against hard-throwing Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Braves down 1-0 and a runner on and did this on a 2-2 fastball. The best part of the highlight is Freddie Freeman's "I don't believe that" reaction in the dugout.
The Dodgers bullpen, meanwhile, continues to implode. They followed Saturday's loss with another one on Sunday, giving up four runs in the eighth in a 5-2 loss. It has 13 losses, three more than any other team, and its 4.61 ERA is better only than the New York Mets and Houston Astros.
Unclutch performance of the weekend
Aroldis Chapman, step on down. Chapman entered with a 2-1 lead on Sunday and walked Delmon Young with one out. That was bad enough, but Cliff Lee pinch ran for Delmon (yes, a guy who plays the outfield regularly got run for by a pitcher) and got picked off for the second out of the inning. Game over, right? Nope. Erik Kratz homered on a 3-2, 98 mph heater. And then Freddy Galvis -- Freddy Galvis! -- hit the dramatic walk-off home run off a 95 mph fastball.
Best game
OK, it's pretty difficult to top that one. There were some wild games this weekend -- Tampa beat Baltimore 12-10 on Friday, the Indians gave up two home runs in the ninth to Seattle on Saturday only to win in the bottom of the inning -- but Friday's Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres game was a tough one for San Diego. Adam LaRoche homered twice off rookie Burch Smith, but the Padres tied it with two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Rafael Soriano -- with the help of another Ryan Zimmerman throwing error. (A situation that's becoming a serious problem for the Nationals, as that's nine errors for Zimmerman with his fielding percentage a Mark Reynolds-like .897.) Anyway, Chad Tracy hit a pinch-hit homer off Huston Street in the 10th to give the Nats a 6-5 win. That's already six home runs allowed for Street, whose trade value is shrinking with each home run.
Hitter on the rise: Jason Kipnis, Indians
He had a three-run, walk-off home run in the 10th inning on Friday and two hits on Saturday and Sunday, giving him nine in his past four games, all Cleveland victories. The Indians are 17-4 since April 28 and Kipnis has hit .305 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs in the 20 games he's played. He won't start the All-Star Game with Robinson Cano in the American League, and the AL is loaded at second base with Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Kipnis at the All-Star Game.
Pitcher on the rise: Jeff Locke, Pirates
I'm not necessarily buying, but the lefty is now 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA after tossing seven scoreless innings on Sunday against the Astros in a 1-0 win. His K/BB ratio is a pedestrian 32/22, but opponents are hitting just .219 off him, thanks to a .230 BABIP. With that number likely to rise, Locke will need to record a few more whiffs to maintain success close to this level. Still, that's three scoreless outings this season and one did come against the Cardinals. Even though he's not this good, if he can give the Pirates 175 solid innings as a No. 4 starter, they'll take it.
Team on the rise: Pirates
The Pirates took two of three from the Astros to improve to 11-6 in May and 26-18 overall. They're second in the majors in ERA, and it's not necessarily a huge fluke as they're third in strikeouts. One thing to keep an eye on: Only the hapless Astros have needed more innings from their bullpen, so while the Pittsburgh crew has been outstanding, the workload is a possible concern down the road.
Team on the fall: Dodgers
The two bright spots this week were Zack Greinke's return and Matt Kemp's great catch on Saturday, but three losses in Atlanta reiterated that this isn't just a team ravaged by injuries: It's a bad team with a bad bullpen that finds ways to lose. Manager Don Mattingly said not to blame the bullpen. "You add on a run here or there, it takes a lot of pressure off a guy that you can't give up one hit that changes the whole game. I think we have to take this all as a group."
OK, then, we'll call it a team effort of a team on the fall.
Rays still the favorite in the AL East
May, 19, 2013
May 19
9:01
PM ET
By
David Schoenfield | ESPN.com
When the Tampa Bay Rays changed their name in 2008 and transformed overnight from the hapless laughingstock of the American League to 97-win division champions, their rotation featured five pitchers 26 or younger: At 26, James Shields was the old man of the group, which included Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine.
The genius of the Rays since then has been their ability to consistently replenish the staff with young starters and yet remain one of the best in the league. With the departure of Shields this offseason, that original five has been completely made over; a transition began when David Price joined the rotation during the 2009 season. The unofficial title of staff ace has shifted from Kazmir to Shields to Price, and it appears another shift is taking place in 2013.
Matt Moore, your presence as a Cy Young contender is duly noted. With reigning Cy Young champ Price struggling -- earning just one win in nine starts while posting a 5.24 ERA, and then landing on the DL a few days ago with triceps strain -- it is Moore who has helped keep the Rays afloat more than any one pitcher. He improved to 8-0 on Sunday, limiting the Baltimore Orioles to five hits and one run over seven innings in a 3-1 victory, as the Rays completed an impressive sweep in Baltimore.
Moore lowered his ERA to 2.29, the Rays improved to 23-20 with their ninth win in 11 games, and this is looking like a team starting to click on all cylinders -- even as Price sits on the sidelines the next two weeks.
At 23, Moore became the youngest American League pitcher to start 8-0 since another hard-throwing lefty named Babe Ruth did it in 1917. The scary thing about his start is that the ability to perform even better is there, as he has been inconsistent with his command and pitched seven innings just twice. Manager Joe Maddon suggested as much, telling MLB.com:
I think from where he's coming from, he knows he can be better. He doesn't like those five-inning outings. He doesn't like that at all. So I'm sure he's deflecting based on that. As you see him get deeper into the games and more consistent with the wins, I think you might see him step out a little bit.
But I like the idea that there's humility involved. I like the idea that he knows that he can get better. I love that. The accountability is tremendous. That doesn't surprise me. ... Historically speaking, it has been wonderful, but there is 'more' in Moore. And he knows that.
Moore has held batters to a .175 average but he has also walked 26 in 55 innings, so there's room for improvement. In some ways, that's what made Sunday's outing impressive: He struck out only three but walked one, avoiding a big inning in the process. Another area for improvement is that while Moore's fastball/curveball/changeup arsenal has destroyed right-handers -- they're hitting .064 off the curveball with 20 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances -- he hasn't yet learned to dominate lefties, who have hit a respectable .236/.335/.361 off him the past two seasons he sticks mostly to the fastball against them.
Of course, a major reason he's 8-0 is excellent run support, but this isn't a typical Tampa Bay offense that struggles to put up runs. After outscoring only the Royals, Indians and Mariners last season, the Rays have scored just 12 runs fewer than the best-in-the-AL Tigers. The Rays' OPS has increased from .711 to .760 and not just because Dodgers castoff James Loney is off to a .356 start. Matt Joyce has eight home runs and Luke Scott has driven in 12 runs in 17 games since coming off the DL; both homered in Sunday's win. Kelly Johnson is hitting .274 with seven home runs. With Loney's hot start, that gives the Rays four threats from the left side. Logic says to throw left-handed pitching at the Rays, but the division isn't exactly ripe with left-handed starters once you get past CC Sabathia and Jon Lester, especially with Mark Buehrle struggling and Andy Pettitte and Wei-Yin Chen currently on the DL.
Throw a lefty, however, and there's that guy named Evan Longoria waiting for you in the middle.
But here's why I'll stick with my preseason choice of the Rays to win the AL East: pitching, pitching, pitching. At least starting pitching. (The bullpen is the team's major issue right now.) At Triple-A Durham, the rotation included Alex Torres (2.39 ERA, 49 SO, 14 BB in 37.2 IP), Jake Odorizzi (3.83 ERA, 47 SO, 15 BB in 44.2 IP), Chris Archer (4.38 ERA, 40 SO, 19 BB in 39 IP) and Alex Colome (2.86 ERA, 59 SO, 20 BB in 50 IP). The Angels would kill to have those four in their rotation right now.
Torres was called up to replace Price, but Odorizzi will get the start on Monday afternoon against Toronto. All Torres did on Saturday was pitch four hitless innings in relief of Roberto Hernandez to earn his second major league win.
It's all those arms that explain why Price will likely make his billions with another team eventually.
Not that Maddon doesn't want his ace back as quickly as possible or co-ace, that is.
For a four-season stretch, from 2008 to 2011, Jair Jurrjens started 108 games for the Atlanta Braves and posted a 47-32 record with a 3.34 ERA. He maintained decent but not great strikeout-to-walk ratios, and allowed fewer than a home run per nine innings. After making the All-Star team in 2011, Jurrjens fell off in the second half. His troubles carried over into 2012, where he went 3-4 with an ERA above 6.00 in 11 appearances. The Braves demoted the beleaguered right-hander in early April, and he never recaptured his former flourish, thanks in part to a groin issue.
Jurrjens was non-tendered over the winter, which ended his tenure in Atlanta. Concerns about the health of his right knee, as well as his performance over the past 18 months, prevented him from landing a big-league deal on the open market. Instead, Jurrjens settled on a minor-league deal with the Baltimore Orioles. After making eight successful starts for Norfolk, the O's Triple-A affiliate, Jurrjens returned to the big leagues on Saturday and faced the Tampa Bay Rays.
Despite Jurrjens' relative youth, the 27-year-old's velocity has declined considerably over the past few seasons. Previously throwing in the low-to-mid 90s, he now tops out around 89 mph. In place of velocity he relies heavily on his fastball's movement, a low-80s changeup, a slider that is a few ticks slower, and location.
Jurrjens 2.0 looked a lot like the previous incarnation. He still lined up on the third-base side of the rubber and displayed similar mechanics. This includes: a chest-high leg lift, hands breaking around the waist, and a distinct spine-tilt as he released the ball. Facing a surprisingly potent Rays' lineup, he changed speeds and varied location to mixed results.
The Curaçao native started strong. Beginning with Ben Zobrist in the bottom of the first inning, he struck out four consecutive batters, including the side in the second inning. He spotted two upper-80s fastballs for called strikes to Zobrist before switching to the offspeed for the kill. Zobrist fouled off one change before swinging over the top of an 82-mph pitch for the strikeout.
In the top of the second inning, Jurrjens retired the hot-hitting Evan Longoria without a swing. Jurrjens started the at-bat with a fastball for strike one, earned another called strike with a changeup, and then went back to the fastball for strike three. Following Longoria, James Loney faced a similar fate as Zobrist. After watching a few fastballs to start the at-bat, the owner of the AL's second-best batting average went down swinging on a changeup below the zone. To complete the quartet of punchouts, Jurrjens leaned on his "hard" stuff. He struck out Rays' designated hitter Luke Scott on three fastballs, the final pitch hitting 90 on the gun.
As the Rays' lineup flipped over in the third inning, Jurrjens changed his process. He faced seven batters in the inning and started five of the plate appearances with something other than a fastball. Unfortunately for him, the switch in strategy backfired as Tampa Bay scored three runs on four extra-base hits, including a home run by Matt Joyce on a changeup.
Jurrjens returned to the fastball-first approach over his final two frames. He started six of the last nine batters he faced with fastballs. In the biggest moment of the game -- two on and two out in the fifth inning of a 6-4 game with Longoria at the plate -- Jurrjens reversed course once again. He started the at-bat with a changeup in the dirt for ball one. Longoria was clearly expecting a fastball on a 1-0 pitch and took a huge cut. Instead of the heater, he received an 83 mph offspeed pitch. Despite poor location, Tampa Bay's franchise player was out in front. Longoria fouled off a third changeup before grounding out to third on a fastball for the last out of the inning.
The final line on Jurrjens was not great: He allowed four runs on six hits and walk in five innings. Still, he struck out five batters and pounded the strike zone. He threw 75 pitches, of which 51 were strikes. He was primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher with a handful of sliders mixed in for some added variety. The game is a microcosm of the two sides of Jurrjens. When he commands his pitches and mixes location and speed, he can be an effective big-league starter. When he doesn't, he can't.
The most important parts of Jurrjens' start were that he (A) made it and (B) looked healthy in doing so. Although Jurrjens is not the front-line starter the O's desire, he could be a useful piece of depth. With Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez on the disabled list, finding able bodies is a more pressing than finding an ace. If Jurrjens pitches like he's capable of, then he could be part of the solution.
Tommy Rancel writes for The Process Report, a Tampa Bay Rays blog.
[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/USA TODAY SportsRight-hander Jair Jurrjens returned to the big leagues Saturday following eight starts for the Baltimore Orioles' Triple-A affiliate, Norfolk.
Kim Klement/USA TODAY SportsRight-hander Jair Jurrjens returned to the big leagues Saturday following eight starts for the Baltimore Orioles' Triple-A affiliate, Norfolk.Despite Jurrjens' relative youth, the 27-year-old's velocity has declined considerably over the past few seasons. Previously throwing in the low-to-mid 90s, he now tops out around 89 mph. In place of velocity he relies heavily on his fastball's movement, a low-80s changeup, a slider that is a few ticks slower, and location.
Jurrjens 2.0 looked a lot like the previous incarnation. He still lined up on the third-base side of the rubber and displayed similar mechanics. This includes: a chest-high leg lift, hands breaking around the waist, and a distinct spine-tilt as he released the ball. Facing a surprisingly potent Rays' lineup, he changed speeds and varied location to mixed results.
The Curaçao native started strong. Beginning with Ben Zobrist in the bottom of the first inning, he struck out four consecutive batters, including the side in the second inning. He spotted two upper-80s fastballs for called strikes to Zobrist before switching to the offspeed for the kill. Zobrist fouled off one change before swinging over the top of an 82-mph pitch for the strikeout.
In the top of the second inning, Jurrjens retired the hot-hitting Evan Longoria without a swing. Jurrjens started the at-bat with a fastball for strike one, earned another called strike with a changeup, and then went back to the fastball for strike three. Following Longoria, James Loney faced a similar fate as Zobrist. After watching a few fastballs to start the at-bat, the owner of the AL's second-best batting average went down swinging on a changeup below the zone. To complete the quartet of punchouts, Jurrjens leaned on his "hard" stuff. He struck out Rays' designated hitter Luke Scott on three fastballs, the final pitch hitting 90 on the gun.
As the Rays' lineup flipped over in the third inning, Jurrjens changed his process. He faced seven batters in the inning and started five of the plate appearances with something other than a fastball. Unfortunately for him, the switch in strategy backfired as Tampa Bay scored three runs on four extra-base hits, including a home run by Matt Joyce on a changeup.
Jurrjens returned to the fastball-first approach over his final two frames. He started six of the last nine batters he faced with fastballs. In the biggest moment of the game -- two on and two out in the fifth inning of a 6-4 game with Longoria at the plate -- Jurrjens reversed course once again. He started the at-bat with a changeup in the dirt for ball one. Longoria was clearly expecting a fastball on a 1-0 pitch and took a huge cut. Instead of the heater, he received an 83 mph offspeed pitch. Despite poor location, Tampa Bay's franchise player was out in front. Longoria fouled off a third changeup before grounding out to third on a fastball for the last out of the inning.
The final line on Jurrjens was not great: He allowed four runs on six hits and walk in five innings. Still, he struck out five batters and pounded the strike zone. He threw 75 pitches, of which 51 were strikes. He was primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher with a handful of sliders mixed in for some added variety. The game is a microcosm of the two sides of Jurrjens. When he commands his pitches and mixes location and speed, he can be an effective big-league starter. When he doesn't, he can't.
The most important parts of Jurrjens' start were that he (A) made it and (B) looked healthy in doing so. Although Jurrjens is not the front-line starter the O's desire, he could be a useful piece of depth. With Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez on the disabled list, finding able bodies is a more pressing than finding an ace. If Jurrjens pitches like he's capable of, then he could be part of the solution.
Tommy Rancel writes for The Process Report, a Tampa Bay Rays blog.
Braves' pen woes deepen, but they'll be OK
May, 19, 2013
May 19
12:40
AM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
The Braves might be atop the National League East, the beneficiaries of Justin Upton's slugging largesse, and they just got Jason Heyward back from the disabled list after getting Brian McCann back in action earlier this week.
Yet for all that, the news in the bullpen seems dire after the past 72 hours or so. Start off with Jonny Venters' Tommy John surgery on Thursday: expected, but glum. Then, Jordan Walden landed on the DL on Friday. And then Eric O'Flaherty joined him there on Saturday -- with the always-ominous appointment with Dr. James Andrews to look at his torn ulnar collateral ligament and a likely Tommy John surgery in his future to look forward to.
How much can a team meaningfully prepare for losing just about everybody in your bullpen but your closer? The Braves had already insured themselves by dealing for depth, trading for Walden -- the Angels’ former closer -- during the winter and then adding Orioles veteran Luis Ayala last month.
This isn’t new territory for the Braves: They’ve seemingly used up top-shelf relief talent before, and they probably will again. They worked Aussie side-armer Peter Moylan hard in 2007; he blew out his elbow in 2008. Moylan came back to pitch 172 games combined between 2009-10, scragged his shoulder and hasn’t been the same since. But the Braves got three tremendous relief seasons out of somebody nobody else had even noticed -- and without spending top dollar to get it on the open market.
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AP Photo/Ross D. FranklinJust after Atlanta got Brian McCann back, it lost lefty Eric O'Flaherty, right -- perhaps for the season.
AP Photo/Ross D. FranklinJust after Atlanta got Brian McCann back, it lost lefty Eric O'Flaherty, right -- perhaps for the season.Venters threw 81 games (majors and minors combined) in 2010 before his league-leading 85 in 2011. He wasn’t the same pitcher last season. After he recovers from Tommy John surgery, we’ll see if he’ll ever be that rubber-armed shutdown reliever again.
But you can’t really put that on the Braves as instances of bullpen abuse. Would O’Flaherty or Venters or Moylan have ever amounted to as much? Would they have blown out their arms at some point? They were assets, and the Braves used them to good effect over multiple seasons. For all the advances that have been made in evaluating starting pitcher workloads, there’s still a relative lack of hard information about what’s possible out of the pen in terms of appearances and innings.
It’s also pretty clear that when it comes to ideal workloads, one size does not fit all, so even individual examples don’t form a basis for useful comparison. Not everybody should grow up to be Rollie Fingers or Dennis Eckersley -- pitching one inning and only one inning; not everybody who is left-handed could do what Jesse Orosco or Rick Honeycutt did, either. Not everybody could handle the kind of workload that Mark Eichhorn or Mike Marshall did. In short, managers and general managers are in a constant cycle of adapting to the talent at hand and adapting those to their teams’ needs.
So you can gnash your teeth over these losses, because if you’re a Braves fan, you have the right to be worried. But if anybody can cope, it’s the Braves. One of the most overused tropes about them throughout the '90s and on into the 2000s was that the Braves needed relievers, but whether it was a matter of fishing Kerry Ligtenberg out of the independent leagues, finding Moylan at the World Baseball Classic or investing their full faith in a journeyman like Mike Remlinger, few teams have been as consistently good at conjuring up quality relief help out of thin air to augment their bullpen as the Braves. O’Flaherty came over a waiver claim. They’ve made mistakes (Danny Kolb, anybody?), but they’ve rarely hurt them badly or cost them much.
So, if anybody is going to find quality help on the fly without having to spend top dollar, I’d bet on the Braves doing so in their moment of need. To put their problem in perspective, consider what they still have going for them: Craig Kimbrel owns the ninth, and even if he has had a moment of vincibility or two, he’s still arguably the best reliever in baseball right now. They still have a nifty situational side-arming righty in Cory Gearrin and another live-armed righty in Anthony Varvaro. Walden’s injury doesn’t appear serious; he’ll be back. So will Ayala.
On the other side of every ballgame, Atlanta has a rotation armed with four men who can consistently pitch into the sixth or seventh inning. In the fifth slot, the Braves have a top prospect in Julio Teheran, a live arm who, for his own workload as well as the team’s need for relief, stands ready to bump back into the bullpen once starter Brandon Beachy comes off the DL in a few weeks.
In the aggregate, they’ll be fine if they keep their heads and stick with what they have. What the Braves will need with an eye toward high-leverage matchups later in the season will be a top-shelf lefty, because that’s where they’ve been truly spoiled by having both Venters and O’Flaherty around. If (when) Joe Beimel disappoints, Braves general manager Frank Wren could settle for dealing a Grade C prospect for a similar vet at the deadline. But if he decides to replace like with like and aim for better southpaw support, it’ll be interesting to see whom he targets. The Angels’ Scott Downs or Sean Burnett? Matt Thornton of the White Sox? J.P. Howell of the Dodgers? All it takes is a little bit of big-budget heartbreak and a visible white flag, and those will be run up in good time. The Braves can supply a suitable semi-promising Grade C prospect not yet on the 40-man roster to make it all seem reasonable.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
Arenado stocks Rockies' hot-corner needs
May, 18, 2013
May 18
10:00
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
CHICAGO -- As Anna McDonald noted, there are plenty of reasons to question why anyone would move Troy Tulowitzki from shortstop anytime soon. Despite his checkered injury history, only one of Tulo’s injuries came while fielding. The Yankees have done pretty well for themselves with Derek Jeter at short despite the Captain’s repeatedly low ranking via just about every fielding metric available -- but Tulo’s a fine shortstop.
But, perhaps most fundamentally, any logical impetus to shift Tulo over to third base would trip over a true blue-chip stumbling block: top Rockies prospect Nolan Arenado. After years of anticipation for Colorado fans looking forward to his arrival, Arenado is showing that the future of third base in Denver might already be his.
“Everything’s going good so far. I’m enjoying my time. It’s nice being up. It’s a blessing from God, and I’m very fortunate to be here,” Arenado said earlier this week in Wrigley Field.
Arenado’s arrival was big and splashy. At a time when pitchers have made most of the early headlines, Arenado ripped three home runs in his first seven games. Inevitably, though, the league started adjusting, and he’s hit .170/.200/.508 in the two weeks since.
“They’re throwing different pitches in different counts,” Arenado said. “It’s an adjustment, but I believe when I’m feeling alright, I’ll be alright,” he said with a smile.
If Arenado comes across as confident, that’s because he’s earned the right. A top prospect from the moment he was selected out of a California high school in 2009, Arenado’s just 22 and in his fifth season as a pro. He was the Arizona Fall League MVP in 2011 without having first advanced beyond Class-A ball. And in terms of his gifts, there’s no doubt he’ll stick at the hot corner. He was involved in 36 double plays at Double-A Tulsa last season with an eye-popping range factor of 3.40 plays per game; Mike Moustakas led the majors last season with a 2.95 RF/G and 41 double plays. Not that Range Factor’s the final word; like more recent defensive metrics, it’s suggestive, not definitive, and the data simply echoes what observers have been saying about Arenado’s glove work.
Rockies infield coach Stu Cole reflected, “I’ve had both of those guys. I had Tulo earlier in his career just after he got drafted. I had Nolan in the Arizona Fall League couple of years ago. I’ll tell you what: This guy made some exciting plays. You just knew once this guy was ready to go to the big leagues and be consistent with what he’s able to do, he was going to make some plays. To have those two guys on the left side, it’s nothing but a plus. You’ve good gloves over there, good arms, and both those guys are going to save a lot of hits for us.”
Cole is one of several familiar faces helping make sure that Arenado settles in. “Stu helps me out big time,” Arenado said. “He always tells me where to go and where to play. It also helps being on major league fields -- they’re really nice, so you’re really fortunate on hops. Starting double plays, Josh Rutledge, I trust him, I’ve been playing with him for a while. I’ve been playing a while with a lot of these guys. As far as positioning, we’re always going hitter by hitter and making adjustments.”
One of the concerns about Arenado as he came up was that he was trying to do too much in the field, something that will have to change as he settles in alongside Tulo on the left side. As Cole noted, “Both of those guys are in that mode of trying to get every ball that’s hit their way. I think Nolan just has that instinct of breaking to the ball whenever it’s hit in his direction.”
“A lot of balls that are going to be hit short, where Tulo might have had to come up and make a one-handed grab, now Nolan’s going to be there to get to some of those balls. In the past, we might have had a few third basemen who wouldn’t have been able to get to some of those balls. I think that’s going to take some pressure off Tulo,” Cole said.
Arenado takes it as a challenge to be part of an effective team with Tulo. “We always communicate about where we need to play,” Arenado said. “I know if he’s playing left, I can still move over a little to the right, because we know we can still cover the hole. We’re definitely good and have a lot of range, so we’re able to split it out in different ways. It’s been fun.”
One of the other advantages is that at the big league level, Arenado plays with the advantage of better data and scouting info, as well as the benefit of playing alongside one of the best players in baseball at short.
Of the Rockies’ deployment of advanced metrics on defense, Cole said, “That’s something we’ve been using pretty much all season. We use the scouting reports to position these guys, and that’s something Nolan’s still getting used to, but he’s adjusted to it well. He’s not only asking questions, he’s also paying attention, looking into the dugout to see if there’s a place he needs to be moved to and making sure he’s in the right spot. He’s a great student of the game.”
Which is where Arenado has plenty of additional homework to look forward to as he adjusts to pitchers who are already developing a big league book on him.
“There’s a lot more stuff going on up here,” Arenado said. “It’s a lot better in terms of scouting reports. In the minors, it’s still word of mouth: This is what this guy has. But here, we get to see a lot of film of all the different pitchers. We had no video projection screen in the minors and no video of anybody, but here you get everything.”
And here again, he’s getting the benefit of his new teammates. “Tulo and CarGo [left fielder Carlos Gonzalez] add a lot of insight about hitting,” Arenado said. “They’ve seen a lot of these pitchers, but it’s the first time I’m facing them -- they give me a lot of insight from their experience.”
With that sort of assistance on top of his talent, Arenado’s a big part of the Rockies’ future. And now that the future is now, that should leave them well covered for years to come -- at third base and at shortstop.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.
But, perhaps most fundamentally, any logical impetus to shift Tulo over to third base would trip over a true blue-chip stumbling block: top Rockies prospect Nolan Arenado. After years of anticipation for Colorado fans looking forward to his arrival, Arenado is showing that the future of third base in Denver might already be his.
“Everything’s going good so far. I’m enjoying my time. It’s nice being up. It’s a blessing from God, and I’m very fortunate to be here,” Arenado said earlier this week in Wrigley Field.
Arenado’s arrival was big and splashy. At a time when pitchers have made most of the early headlines, Arenado ripped three home runs in his first seven games. Inevitably, though, the league started adjusting, and he’s hit .170/.200/.508 in the two weeks since.
“They’re throwing different pitches in different counts,” Arenado said. “It’s an adjustment, but I believe when I’m feeling alright, I’ll be alright,” he said with a smile.
[+] Enlarge
Richard Mackson/USA TODAY SportsColorado rookie third baseman Nolan Arenado is taking advantage both of big-league scouting reports and advice from neighbor Troy Tulowitzki.
Richard Mackson/USA TODAY SportsColorado rookie third baseman Nolan Arenado is taking advantage both of big-league scouting reports and advice from neighbor Troy Tulowitzki.Rockies infield coach Stu Cole reflected, “I’ve had both of those guys. I had Tulo earlier in his career just after he got drafted. I had Nolan in the Arizona Fall League couple of years ago. I’ll tell you what: This guy made some exciting plays. You just knew once this guy was ready to go to the big leagues and be consistent with what he’s able to do, he was going to make some plays. To have those two guys on the left side, it’s nothing but a plus. You’ve good gloves over there, good arms, and both those guys are going to save a lot of hits for us.”
Cole is one of several familiar faces helping make sure that Arenado settles in. “Stu helps me out big time,” Arenado said. “He always tells me where to go and where to play. It also helps being on major league fields -- they’re really nice, so you’re really fortunate on hops. Starting double plays, Josh Rutledge, I trust him, I’ve been playing with him for a while. I’ve been playing a while with a lot of these guys. As far as positioning, we’re always going hitter by hitter and making adjustments.”
One of the concerns about Arenado as he came up was that he was trying to do too much in the field, something that will have to change as he settles in alongside Tulo on the left side. As Cole noted, “Both of those guys are in that mode of trying to get every ball that’s hit their way. I think Nolan just has that instinct of breaking to the ball whenever it’s hit in his direction.”
“A lot of balls that are going to be hit short, where Tulo might have had to come up and make a one-handed grab, now Nolan’s going to be there to get to some of those balls. In the past, we might have had a few third basemen who wouldn’t have been able to get to some of those balls. I think that’s going to take some pressure off Tulo,” Cole said.
Arenado takes it as a challenge to be part of an effective team with Tulo. “We always communicate about where we need to play,” Arenado said. “I know if he’s playing left, I can still move over a little to the right, because we know we can still cover the hole. We’re definitely good and have a lot of range, so we’re able to split it out in different ways. It’s been fun.”
““Communication between those two guys, that’s something that’s going to get better down the road: Nolan’s going to know where Tulo’s playing, and Tulo’s going to know that there are balls Nolan’s going to get to when he’s coming in," Cole predicted. "Those things will only get better, because two guys will be able to complement each other.”To have those two guys on the left side, it's nothing but a plus. You've good gloves over there, good arms, and both those guys are going to save a lot of hits for us.
” -- Rockies infield coach Stu Cole,
on Nolan Arenado and Troy Tulowitzki
One of the other advantages is that at the big league level, Arenado plays with the advantage of better data and scouting info, as well as the benefit of playing alongside one of the best players in baseball at short.
Of the Rockies’ deployment of advanced metrics on defense, Cole said, “That’s something we’ve been using pretty much all season. We use the scouting reports to position these guys, and that’s something Nolan’s still getting used to, but he’s adjusted to it well. He’s not only asking questions, he’s also paying attention, looking into the dugout to see if there’s a place he needs to be moved to and making sure he’s in the right spot. He’s a great student of the game.”
Which is where Arenado has plenty of additional homework to look forward to as he adjusts to pitchers who are already developing a big league book on him.
“There’s a lot more stuff going on up here,” Arenado said. “It’s a lot better in terms of scouting reports. In the minors, it’s still word of mouth: This is what this guy has. But here, we get to see a lot of film of all the different pitchers. We had no video projection screen in the minors and no video of anybody, but here you get everything.”
And here again, he’s getting the benefit of his new teammates. “Tulo and CarGo [left fielder Carlos Gonzalez] add a lot of insight about hitting,” Arenado said. “They’ve seen a lot of these pitchers, but it’s the first time I’m facing them -- they give me a lot of insight from their experience.”
With that sort of assistance on top of his talent, Arenado’s a big part of the Rockies’ future. And now that the future is now, that should leave them well covered for years to come -- at third base and at shortstop.
Christina Kahrl covers baseball for ESPN.com. You can follow her on Twitter.

